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Stalemate at Oviedo's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Estadio Nuevo Carlos Tartiere, Regular Season - 11, as Oviedo and Osasuna drew 0-0 in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Oviedo 0.71 xG and Osasuna 1.13 xG, a combined 1.84. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Osasuna landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Oviedo attack 0.56 / defence 1.37 against Osasuna attack 0.71 / defence 0.88, drawn from 10/48 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Oviedo 23% | Draw 32% | Osasuna 45%, with Osasuna to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 55% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 35% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Oviedo 40%, Osasuna 30%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 35%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Oviedo's trading profile (10 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 30% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 60% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Osasuna's trading profile (10 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Oviedo 0.70 PPG, Osasuna 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Oviedo (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line. Osasuna (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.40 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights