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Levante cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Oviedo.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Levante beat Oviedo 0-2 at Estadio Nuevo Carlos Tartiere, Regular Season - 8, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Oviedo 1.10 xG and Levante 1.52 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Oviedo fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Oviedo attack 0.71 / defence 1.25 against Levante attack 1.06 / defence 1.07, drawn from 7/7 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Oviedo 27% | Draw 27% | Levante 46%, with Levante to win its most likely call at 46%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Oviedo 43%, Levante 71%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Oviedo's trading profile (7 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 29% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 57% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Levante's trading profile (7 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Oviedo 0.86 PPG, Levante 0.71 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Levante win broke the near-deadlock. Levante (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights