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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Elche defy the odds to beat Oviedo 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Elche beat Oviedo 1-2 at Estadio Nuevo Carlos Tartiere, Regular Season - 32, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Oviedo 1.13 xG and Elche 0.79 xG, a combined 1.93. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Elche outscored their 0.79 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Oviedo attack 0.57 / defence 0.86 against Elche attack 0.81 / defence 1.27, drawn from 32/32 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Oviedo 44% | Draw 31% | Elche 26%, with Oviedo to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Elche win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 57% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Oviedo 38%, Elche 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Oviedo's trading profile (32 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 34% of their matches — today it did.

Elche's trading profile (32 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Oviedo 0.88 PPG, Elche 1.09 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Elche win broke the near-deadlock. Oviedo (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.80 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Elche (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.93 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.07 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights