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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

La Liga · Regular Season - 26

Kick-off

Sat 28 Feb 2026

20:00

Venue

Estadio Nuevo Carlos Tartiere

Competition

La Liga

Spain

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Atletico Madrid Win

26%

Oviedo

3.85

36%

Draw

2.78

38%

Atletico Madrid

2.63

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

0 – 0

18.7%

Draw

Most likely

0 – 1

17.7%

Away win

1 – 0

13.7%

Home win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

0.73

Oviedo xG

Total xG

1.68

0.95

Atletico Madrid xG

26%
36%
38%
OviedoDrawAtletico Madrid

3.85

26%

Home win

2.78

36%

Draw

2.63

38%

Away win

Goals Markets

50%

Over 1.5

2.00

50%

Under 1.5

2.00

24%

Over 2.5

4.17

76%

Under 2.5

1.32

9%

Over 3.5

11.11

91%

Under 3.5

1.10

3%

Over 4.5

33.33

97%

Under 4.5

1.03

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

33%

BTTS Yes

3.06

67%

BTTS No

1.49

Clean Sheet

39%

Oviedo

2.58

48%

Atletico Madrid

2.08

Win to Nil

10%

Oviedo

9.92

18%

Atletico Madrid

5.46

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 18.7 17.7 8.4 2.6 0.6 0.1
1 13.7 12.9 6.1 1.9 0.5 0.1
2 5.0 4.7 2.2 0.7 0.2
3 1.2 1.2 0.5 0.2
4 0.2 0.2 0.1
5

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 0.732
λ Away (xG) 0.947
Total xG 1.679
League avg home goals 1.520
League avg away goals 1.125
Oviedo attack strength 0.555
Oviedo defence strength 0.977
Atletico Madrid attack strength 0.862
Atletico Madrid defence strength 0.867
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 24 / 63