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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Osasuna and Villarreal share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Estadio El Sadar, Regular Season - 22, as Osasuna and Villarreal drew 2-2 in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Osasuna 1.50 xG and Villarreal 1.50 xG, a combined 3.00. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Osasuna attack 1.13 / defence 1.10 against Villarreal attack 1.21 / defence 0.90, drawn from 59/58 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Osasuna 37% | Draw 26% | Villarreal 37%, with Osasuna to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Osasuna 43%, Villarreal 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Osasuna's trading profile (58 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Villarreal's trading profile (58 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Villarreal arrived the stronger side — 1.91 PPG against 1.31. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Osasuna (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.18 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights