Osasuna 1-0 Valencia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Osasuna at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Osasuna vs Valencia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A La Liga encounter, Regular Season - 2 sees Valencia travel to Estadio El Sadar to take on Osasuna. The game is scheduled for Sunday 24 August 2025, 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all La Liga games this season, Osasuna have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.80 PPG return. Last five: D W W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Osasuna have played only a handful of La Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Estadio El Sadar, Osasuna have gone 5W 3D 2L this season (10 games, 1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Valencia stand at 4W 4D 2L from 10 La Liga matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W L L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Valencia have played only a handful of La Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Valencia away from home this season: 2W 6D 2L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Osasuna 1.80 PPG, Valencia 1.60 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 8 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Osasuna, 4 for Valencia and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Mar 2025, ended 3–3 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Osasuna trading profile (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 95% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games).
Valencia trading profile (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Osasuna 62% and Valencia 59% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Osasuna 44% | Valencia 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Osasuna 1.52 xG and Valencia 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Osasuna attack 1.082 / defence 0.930 | Valencia attack 1.009 / defence 1.052. League average goals — home 1.338 / away 1.222. Data: 39 Osasuna games / 39 Valencia games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Osasuna 46% | Draw 25% | Valencia 29%. Fair-value odds: Osasuna 2.17 | Draw 4.00 | Valencia 3.45. Osasuna hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.67. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.67 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Osasuna as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Osasuna offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.67 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 50% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates corroborate: Osasuna 70% | Valencia 90% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (39 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Osasuna vs Valencia | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Estadio El Sadar • Kick-off: Sunday 24 Aug 2025, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Osasuna 46% | Draw 25% | Valencia 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 53% | xG Osasuna 1.52 / Valencia 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Osasuna attack 1.082 / def 0.930 | Valencia attack 1.009 / def 1.052 | league avg home 1.338 / away 1.222 • Poisson stance: Osasuna (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
Osasuna xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Valencia xG
53%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Osasuna vs Valencia kick off?
Osasuna vs Valencia kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 24 August 2025 at Estadio El Sadar.
What was the final score in Osasuna vs Valencia?
Osasuna 1 - 0 Valencia.
Where is Osasuna vs Valencia being played?
The match is being played at Estadio El Sadar.
What competition is Osasuna vs Valencia part of?
Osasuna vs Valencia is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Osasuna vs Valencia?
Our statistical model gives Osasuna a 46% chance of winning, Valencia a 29% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Osasuna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Osasuna vs Valencia?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Osasuna and Valencia will score (BTTS).
Will Osasuna vs Valencia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Osasuna and Valencia?
Record (8 meetings): Osasuna 2W | Draws 2 | Valencia 4W.
What form are Osasuna and Valencia in?
Osasuna (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-W-D-L. Valencia (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Osasuna's attack rating (1.08) and Valencia's defence rating (1.05), the model arrives at 1.52 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Valencia's attack versus Osasuna's defence, projects 1.15 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (39/39 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-0 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Osasuna Win
46%
2.18
25%
3.93
29%
3.50
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
Osasuna xG
Total xG
2.67
1.15
Valencia xG
2.18
46%
Home win
3.93
25%
Draw
3.50
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.87
47%
BTTS No
2.14
Clean Sheet
32%
3.15
22%
4.59
Win to Nil
15%
6.85
6%
16.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 7.9 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 12.1 | 6.9 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 9.2 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 4.7 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Osasuna vs Valencia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Osasuna and Valencia expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for Osasuna and 1.15 for Valencia, a combined total of 2.67.
How confident is the prediction model for Osasuna vs Valencia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Osasuna come into this having played 39 games, going 12W 16D 11L for 1.33 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-D-L. It's still early in the season for Osasuna, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Valencia sit at 1.21 PPG from 39 outings (11W 14D 14L), a run that reads W-L-L-D-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Valencia, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Osasuna on 1.33 PPG, Valencia on 1.21. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Osasuna's home form reads 10W 6D 3L across 19 games on their own ground, a 1.89 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.33 PPG overall — Osasuna are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Valencia have taken 0.79 points per game from 19 outings (2W 9D 8L). That's a step down from their 1.21 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Valencia's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Osasuna come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Osasuna are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; Valencia are on 1.15 scored and 1.41 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Osasuna have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 39 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Osasuna
Early Season
Valencia
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Osasuna and Valencia in coming into this match?
Osasuna have gone 12W 16D 11L in their last 39 games (1.33 PPG), while Valencia have gone 11W 14D 14L in their last 39 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Osasuna at home or Valencia away?
Osasuna's home record (1.89 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Osasuna at home: 1.89 PPG; Valencia away: 0.79 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Osasuna and Valencia runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 1 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 12 Sep 2021, when Valencia won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Osasuna's record when hosting Valencia specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Osasuna
2
Draws
5
Valencia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Osasuna and Valencia?
From 10 meetings on record, Osasuna have won 3, Valencia have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Osasuna and Valencia last play each other?
They last met on 1 March 2026, when Valencia 1-0 Osasuna.
Who has won more matches between Osasuna and Valencia?
Valencia have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Osasuna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 95% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 58% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
Valencia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 26% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Osasuna at 74%, Valencia at 68%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Osasuna) and 42% (Valencia).
On the defensive side: Valencia in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Osasuna home games / Valencia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Osasuna play Valencia?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 74% of Osasuna's games and 68% of Valencia's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Osasuna vs Valencia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of Osasuna's recent games and 42% of Valencia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Osasuna and Valencia tend to score early?
Osasuna have had a goal before half-time in 95% of their recent matches, Valencia in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Osasuna edge out Valencia 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Osasuna beat Valencia 1-0 at Estadio El Sadar, Regular Season - 2, in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Osasuna 1.52 xG and Valencia 1.15 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Valencia landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Osasuna attack 1.08 / defence 0.93 against Valencia attack 1.01 / defence 1.05, drawn from 39/39 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Osasuna 46% | Draw 25% | Valencia 29%, with Osasuna to win its most likely call at 46%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Osasuna 44%, Valencia 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Osasuna's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Valencia's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Osasuna 1.33 PPG, Valencia 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Osasuna win broke the near-deadlock. Osasuna (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.21 average — tighter than their form line. Valencia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.95 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.