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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Osasuna edge out Sevilla 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Osasuna beat Sevilla 1-0 at Estadio El Sadar, Regular Season - 33, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Osasuna 1.51 xG and Sevilla 1.40 xG, a combined 2.91. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Sevilla landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Osasuna attack 1.15 / defence 1.16 against Sevilla attack 0.98 / defence 0.99, drawn from 70/70 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Osasuna 40% | Draw 25% | Sevilla 35%, with Osasuna to win its most likely call at 40%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Osasuna 46%, Sevilla 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Osasuna's trading profile (70 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.

Sevilla's trading profile (70 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Osasuna 1.23 PPG, Sevilla 1.11 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Osasuna win broke the near-deadlock. Osasuna (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.40 average — tighter than their form line. Sevilla (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.20 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights