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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Osasuna edge out Real Sociedad 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Osasuna beat Real Sociedad 2-1 at Estadio El Sadar, Regular Season - 22, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Osasuna 1.11 xG and Real Sociedad 1.06 xG, a combined 2.18. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Osasuna beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Osasuna attack 1.06 / defence 1.14 against Real Sociedad attack 0.82 / defence 0.75, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Osasuna 37% | Draw 29% | Real Sociedad 34%, with Osasuna to win its most likely call at 37%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Osasuna 44%, Real Sociedad 34%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Osasuna's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Real Sociedad's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Osasuna 1.22 PPG, Real Sociedad 1.49 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Osasuna win broke the near-deadlock. Real Sociedad (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.83 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights