Osasuna 1-2 Real Betis – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Osasuna at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Osasuna vs Real Betis fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estadio El Sadar plays host to Osasuna versus Real Betis in La Liga, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off: Saturday 19 October 2024 at 15:15 UTC.
Current Form
Osasuna's overall La Liga record this term: 4W 4D 2L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: L W D W D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Osasuna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Osasuna at Estadio El Sadar this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Real Betis (all games): 3W 4D 3L across 10 La Liga outings this term — 1.30 points per game. Last five: W L D W L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Real Betis, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Real Betis's form when playing away from home: 2W 4D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.60 vs 1.30 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Real Betis hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 5 wins from 6 meetings. The hosts have won just 1 times in that span.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.3 goals per game across 6 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 5 May 2024, ended 0–2 with Real Betis winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Real Betis have won 5 of 6 previous encounters, and at 3.3 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading
Osasuna half-time and goal-timing data (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games).
Real Betis half-time and goal-timing data (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Osasuna 53% versus Real Betis 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Osasuna 45% | Real Betis 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Osasuna 1.50 xG and Real Betis 0.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Osasuna attack 1.213 / defence 1.045 | Real Betis attack 0.760 / defence 0.854. League average goals — home 1.450 / away 1.057. Data: 47 Osasuna games / 47 Real Betis games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Osasuna 50% | Draw 32% | Real Betis 18%. Fair-value odds: Osasuna 2.00 | Draw 3.12 | Real Betis 5.56. Osasuna hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.34. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.34 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Osasuna as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Osasuna if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.34 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Osasuna 70% | Real Betis 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Osasuna vs Real Betis | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Estadio El Sadar • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Oct 2024, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Osasuna 50% | Draw 32% | Real Betis 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 47% | xG Osasuna 1.50 / Real Betis 0.84 • Poisson strength factors: Osasuna attack 1.213 / def 1.045 | Real Betis attack 0.760 / def 0.854 | league avg home 1.450 / away 1.057 • Poisson stance: Osasuna (50%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Osasuna xG
Expected Goals
0.84
Real Betis xG
47%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Osasuna vs Real Betis kick off?
Osasuna vs Real Betis kicked off at 15:15 on Saturday 19 October 2024 at Estadio El Sadar.
What was the final score in Osasuna vs Real Betis?
Osasuna 1 - 2 Real Betis.
Where is Osasuna vs Real Betis being played?
The match is being played at Estadio El Sadar.
What competition is Osasuna vs Real Betis part of?
Osasuna vs Real Betis is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Osasuna vs Real Betis?
Our statistical model gives Osasuna a 50% chance of winning, Real Betis a 18% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Osasuna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Osasuna vs Real Betis?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Osasuna and Real Betis will score (BTTS).
Will Osasuna vs Real Betis have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Osasuna and Real Betis?
Record (6 meetings): Osasuna 1W | Draws 0 | Real Betis 5W.
What form are Osasuna and Real Betis in?
Osasuna (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-D-W-D. Real Betis (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-L-D-W-L.
What do the betting odds say about Osasuna vs Real Betis?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Osasuna's attack at 1.21x the league average against Real Betis's defence at 0.85x — combine the two and it projects 1.50 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Real Betis's attack (0.76x) against Osasuna's defence (1.04x) — and the away total comes out at 0.84.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (12.9%), 0-0 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Osasuna Win
50%
2.00
32%
3.15
18%
5.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
2 – 0
10.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Osasuna xG
Total xG
2.34
0.84
Real Betis xG
2.00
50%
Home win
3.15
32%
Draw
5.49
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.13
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
43%
2.32
22%
4.50
Win to Nil
22%
4.63
4%
24.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.6 | 8.1 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.4 | 12.1 | 5.1 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.8 | 9.1 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.4 | 4.6 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Osasuna vs Real Betis?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Osasuna and Real Betis expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Osasuna and 0.84 for Real Betis, a combined total of 2.34.
How confident is the prediction model for Osasuna vs Real Betis?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Osasuna's recent record stands at 16W 12D 19L from 47 games, a 1.28 PPG return, with L-W-D-W-D in the last five. The sample for Osasuna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Real Betis, meanwhile, have gone 17W 18D 12L across 47 games — 1.47 PPG, with W-L-D-W-L in their last five. The sample for Real Betis is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.28 PPG for Osasuna against 1.47 for Real Betis. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Osasuna have managed 10W 6D 7L from 23 games — 1.57 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Real Betis's away record stands at 5W 10D 8L across 23 trips, a 1.09 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Osasuna come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Osasuna are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.49 conceded per game recently; Real Betis are on 1.19 scored and 1.13 conceded.
Last 47 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Osasuna
Blended
Real Betis
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Osasuna and Real Betis in coming into this match?
Osasuna have gone 16W 12D 19L in their last 47 games (1.28 PPG), while Real Betis have gone 17W 18D 12L in their last 47 (1.47 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Osasuna at home or Real Betis away?
Osasuna's home record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Osasuna at home: 1.57 PPG; Real Betis away: 1.09 PPG.
Have Osasuna or Real Betis been keeping clean sheets recently?
Osasuna have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Real Betis in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 12 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Real Betis won 4-1 on 3 Apr 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Osasuna have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Real Betis — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Osasuna
2
Draws
7
Real Betis
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Osasuna and Real Betis?
From 10 meetings on record, Osasuna have won 1, Real Betis have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Osasuna and Real Betis last play each other?
They last met on 12 April 2026, when Osasuna 1-1 Real Betis.
Who has won more matches between Osasuna and Real Betis?
Real Betis have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Osasuna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Real Betis are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Osasuna 52%, Real Betis 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 35% for Osasuna and 35% for Real Betis.
On the defensive side: Osasuna keep a clean sheet in 30% of their matches; Real Betis in 30%; Real Betis in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Osasuna home games / Real Betis away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Osasuna play Real Betis?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Osasuna's recent matches and 52% of Real Betis's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Osasuna vs Real Betis usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 35% of Osasuna's recent games and 35% of Real Betis's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Osasuna and Real Betis tend to score early?
Osasuna have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Real Betis in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Real Betis defy the odds to beat Osasuna 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Real Betis beat Osasuna 1-2 at Estadio El Sadar, Regular Season - 10, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Osasuna 1.50 xG and Real Betis 0.84 xG, a combined 2.34. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Real Betis outscored their 0.84 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Osasuna attack 1.21 / defence 1.04 against Real Betis attack 0.76 / defence 0.85, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Osasuna 50% | Draw 32% | Real Betis 18%, with Osasuna to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a Real Betis win, an outcome the model had rated at just 18% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Osasuna 45%, Real Betis 36%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Osasuna's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Real Betis's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Osasuna 1.28 PPG, Real Betis 1.47 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Real Betis win broke the near-deadlock. Real Betis (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.96 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.