Osasuna 1-1 Mallorca – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Osasuna at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Osasuna vs Mallorca fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a La Liga clash, Regular Season - 36 as Osasuna welcome Mallorca to Estadio El Sadar. Kick-off is set for Tuesday 14 May 2024 at 18:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Osasuna — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 La Liga outings this season, averaging 0.80 points per game. Last five: L L L L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Osasuna's home record at Estadio El Sadar: 5W 1D 4L from 10 La Liga appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Osasuna are significantly better at Estadio El Sadar than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Mallorca stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 La Liga matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L L D L W. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
On the road, Mallorca have gone 0W 5D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Osasuna at 0.80 PPG versus Mallorca's 1.20. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Osasuna, 2 for Mallorca and 1 shared spoils from 5 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Dec 2023, ended 2–3 with Mallorca winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Osasuna in-play and half-time data (73 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Mallorca in-play and half-time data (73 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Osasuna 44% versus Mallorca 40%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Osasuna 40% | Mallorca 29%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Osasuna 1.08 xG and Mallorca 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Osasuna attack 0.795 / defence 1.208 | Mallorca attack 0.761 / defence 0.954. League average goals — home 1.422 / away 1.098. Osasuna's attack strength of 0.795 is below the league average — the 1.08 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 73 Osasuna games / 73 Mallorca games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Osasuna 37% | Draw 30% | Mallorca 33%. Fair-value odds: Osasuna 2.70 | Draw 3.33 | Mallorca 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.09. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.09 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Osasuna as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Osasuna offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.09 combined xG gives a 35% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 42% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Osasuna 30% | Mallorca 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Osasuna vs Mallorca | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 36 | Venue: Estadio El Sadar • Kick-off: Tuesday 14 May 2024, 18:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Osasuna 37% | Draw 30% | Mallorca 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 42% | xG Osasuna 1.08 / Mallorca 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Osasuna attack 0.795 / def 1.208 | Mallorca attack 0.761 / def 0.954 | league avg home 1.422 / away 1.098 • Poisson stance: Osasuna (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.08
Osasuna xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Mallorca xG
42%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Osasuna vs Mallorca kick off?
Osasuna vs Mallorca kicked off at 18:30 on Tuesday 14 May 2024 at Estadio El Sadar.
What was the final score in Osasuna vs Mallorca?
Osasuna 1 - 1 Mallorca.
Where is Osasuna vs Mallorca being played?
The match is being played at Estadio El Sadar.
What competition is Osasuna vs Mallorca part of?
Osasuna vs Mallorca is a Regular Season - 36 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Osasuna vs Mallorca?
Our statistical model gives Osasuna a 37% chance of winning, Mallorca a 33% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Osasuna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Osasuna vs Mallorca?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Osasuna and Mallorca will score (BTTS).
Will Osasuna vs Mallorca have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Osasuna and Mallorca?
Record (5 meetings): Osasuna 2W | Draws 1 | Mallorca 2W.
What form are Osasuna and Mallorca in?
Osasuna (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-L-D. Mallorca (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 0.70 | L5 L-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Osasuna's attack at 0.80x the league average against Mallorca's defence at 0.95x — combine the two and it projects 1.08 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Mallorca's attack versus Osasuna's defence, projects 1.01 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 73/73 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.2%), 1-0 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Osasuna Win
37%
2.72
30%
3.33
33%
3.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
13.4%
Home win
0 – 1
12.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.08
Osasuna xG
Total xG
2.09
1.01
Mallorca xG
2.72
37%
Home win
3.33
30%
Draw
3.01
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.38
58%
BTTS No
1.72
Clean Sheet
36%
2.74
34%
2.94
Win to Nil
13%
7.46
11%
8.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.4 | 12.5 | 6.3 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.4 | 13.5 | 6.8 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 7.3 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Osasuna vs Mallorca?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Osasuna and Mallorca expected to score?
The model projects 1.08 expected goals for Osasuna and 1.01 for Mallorca, a combined total of 2.09.
How confident is the prediction model for Osasuna vs Mallorca?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 73 outings, Osasuna have picked up 1.27 PPG on a 26W 15D 32L record — L-L-L-L-D across the most recent five.
Mallorca's form line: 21W 22D 30L from 73 games, 1.16 PPG, last five L-L-D-L-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Osasuna on 1.27 PPG, Mallorca on 1.16. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Osasuna have posted 1.53 PPG from 36 outings (17W 4D 15L).
On the road, Mallorca have gone 5W 10D 21L from 36 away games — 0.69 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.16 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Mallorca's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Osasuna come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Osasuna are averaging 1.04 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; Mallorca are on 0.89 scored and 1.14 conceded.
Last 73 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Osasuna
Current Season
Mallorca
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Osasuna and Mallorca in coming into this match?
Osasuna have gone 26W 15D 32L in their last 73 games (1.27 PPG), while Mallorca have gone 21W 22D 30L in their last 73 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Osasuna at home or Mallorca away?
Osasuna's home record (1.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Osasuna at home: 1.53 PPG; Mallorca away: 0.69 PPG.
Have Osasuna or Mallorca been keeping clean sheets recently?
Osasuna have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Mallorca in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 7 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Osasuna's record when hosting Mallorca specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Osasuna
5
Draws
2
Mallorca
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Osasuna and Mallorca?
From 10 meetings on record, Osasuna have won 3, Mallorca have won 2, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Osasuna and Mallorca last play each other?
They last met on 7 March 2026, when Osasuna 2-2 Mallorca.
Who has won more matches between Osasuna and Mallorca?
Osasuna have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Osasuna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches.
Mallorca are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Osasuna 39%, Mallorca 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Osasuna) and 36% (Mallorca).
On the defensive side: Osasuna keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Osasuna have failed to score in 33% of games; Mallorca in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Osasuna home games / Mallorca away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Osasuna play Mallorca?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of Osasuna's recent matches and 42% of Mallorca's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Osasuna vs Mallorca usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Osasuna's recent games and 36% of Mallorca's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Osasuna and Mallorca tend to score early?
Osasuna have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Mallorca in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Osasuna and Mallorca share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estadio El Sadar, Regular Season - 36, as Osasuna and Mallorca drew 1-1 in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Osasuna 1.08 xG and Mallorca 1.01 xG, a combined 2.09. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Osasuna attack 0.80 / defence 1.21 against Mallorca attack 0.76 / defence 0.95, drawn from 73/73 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Osasuna 37% | Draw 30% | Mallorca 33%, with Osasuna to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 34% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Osasuna 40%, Mallorca 29%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Osasuna's trading profile (73 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.
Mallorca's trading profile (73 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Osasuna 1.27 PPG, Mallorca 1.16 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.