Osasuna 1-1 Leganes – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Osasuna at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Osasuna vs Leganes fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estadio El Sadar plays host to Osasuna versus Leganes in La Liga, Regular Season - 1. Kick-off: Saturday 17 August 2024 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Osasuna have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 La Liga outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: L D D W D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Osasuna haven't played a La Liga game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
At home at Estadio El Sadar, Osasuna have gone 4W 2D 4L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Osasuna 1.52 xG and Leganes 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Osasuna attack 0.882 / defence 1.046 | Leganes attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.502 / away 1.164. Data: 38 Osasuna games / 0 Leganes games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Osasuna 48% | Draw 27% | Leganes 25%. Fair-value odds: Osasuna 2.08 | Draw 3.70 | Leganes 4.00. Osasuna hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.56. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.56 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Osasuna as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Osasuna if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.56 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 47% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Osasuna vs Leganes | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Estadio El Sadar • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Aug 2024, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Osasuna 48% | Draw 27% | Leganes 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 51% | xG Osasuna 1.52 / Leganes 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Osasuna attack 0.882 / def 1.046 | Leganes attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.502 / away 1.164 • Poisson stance: Osasuna (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
Osasuna xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Leganes xG
51%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Osasuna vs Leganes kick off?
Osasuna vs Leganes kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 17 August 2024 at Estadio El Sadar.
What was the final score in Osasuna vs Leganes?
Osasuna 1 - 1 Leganes.
Where is Osasuna vs Leganes being played?
The match is being played at Estadio El Sadar.
What competition is Osasuna vs Leganes part of?
Osasuna vs Leganes is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Osasuna vs Leganes?
Our statistical model gives Osasuna a 48% chance of winning, Leganes a 25% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Osasuna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Osasuna vs Leganes?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Osasuna and Leganes will score (BTTS).
Will Osasuna vs Leganes have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Osasuna and Leganes?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Osasuna and Leganes in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Osasuna (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Osasuna's attack at 0.88x the league average against Leganes's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 1.52 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Leganes's attack (0.85x) against Osasuna's defence (1.05x) — and the away total comes out at 1.03.
These ratings are built from 38/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.2%), 0-0 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Osasuna Win
48%
2.08
27%
3.75
25%
3.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
Osasuna xG
Total xG
2.56
1.03
Leganes xG
2.08
48%
Home win
3.75
27%
Draw
3.96
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
36%
2.82
22%
4.59
Win to Nil
17%
5.86
6%
18.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 8.0 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.8 | 12.2 | 6.3 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 9.3 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 4.7 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Osasuna vs Leganes?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Osasuna and Leganes expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for Osasuna and 1.03 for Leganes, a combined total of 2.56.
How confident is the prediction model for Osasuna vs Leganes?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Osasuna
Pre-Season
Leganes
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 7 April 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Osasuna
2
Draws
0
Leganes
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Osasuna and Leganes?
From 2 meetings on record, Osasuna have won 0, Leganes have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Osasuna and Leganes last play each other?
They last met on 7 April 2025, when Leganes 1-1 Osasuna.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Osasuna home games / Leganes away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Osasuna and Leganes share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estadio El Sadar, Regular Season - 1, as Osasuna and Leganes drew 1-1 in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Osasuna 1.52 xG and Leganes 1.03 xG, a combined 2.56. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Osasuna attack 0.88 / defence 1.05 against Leganes attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 38/0 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Osasuna 48% | Draw 27% | Leganes 25%, with Osasuna to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.