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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Osasuna edge out Getafe 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Osasuna beat Getafe 2-1 at Estadio El Sadar, Regular Season - 8, in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Osasuna 1.43 xG and Getafe 0.82 xG, a combined 2.25. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Osasuna attack 0.97 / defence 0.78 against Getafe attack 0.93 / defence 1.04, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Osasuna 51% | Draw 29% | Getafe 21%, with Osasuna to win its most likely call at 51%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Osasuna 40%, Getafe 36%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Osasuna's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Getafe's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Osasuna 1.31 PPG, Getafe 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Osasuna win broke the near-deadlock. Getafe (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.18 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights