🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Prediction vindicated as Getafe edge out Osasuna 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Getafe beat Osasuna 1-2 at Estadio El Sadar, Regular Season - 28, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Osasuna 1.21 xG and Getafe 1.29 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Osasuna attack 1.12 / defence 1.22 against Getafe attack 0.93 / defence 0.76, drawn from 64/65 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Osasuna 35% | Draw 27% | Getafe 38%, with Getafe to win its most likely call at 38%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Osasuna 44%, Getafe 34%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Osasuna's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Getafe's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Osasuna 1.22 PPG, Getafe 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Getafe win broke the near-deadlock. Getafe (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.03 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights