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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Osasuna cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Espanyol.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Osasuna beat Espanyol 2-0 at Estadio El Sadar, Regular Season - 37, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Osasuna 1.64 xG and Espanyol 1.15 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Espanyol landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Osasuna attack 1.13 / defence 0.98 against Espanyol attack 1.01 / defence 1.05, drawn from 74/36 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Osasuna 49% | Draw 24% | Espanyol 27%, with Osasuna to win its most likely call at 49%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Osasuna 47%, Espanyol 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Osasuna's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.

Espanyol's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Osasuna 1.33 PPG, Espanyol 1.08 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Osasuna win broke the near-deadlock. Osasuna (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.28 average — tighter than their form line. Espanyol (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.94 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights