Osasuna vs Atletico Madrid – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Osasuna at 38%, yet in-form Atletico Madrid provide a compelling counter-argument — this Osasuna vs Atletico Madrid fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a La Liga clash, Regular Season - 24 as Osasuna welcome Atletico Madrid to Estadio El Sadar. Kick-off is set for Sunday 14 February 2027 at 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all La Liga games this season, Osasuna have gone 3W 1D 6L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: L L D W W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Osasuna have played only a handful of La Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Osasuna have posted 4W 3D 3L at Estadio El Sadar — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Osasuna are significantly better at Estadio El Sadar than their overall form suggests.
Atletico Madrid — All Games: 6W 1D 3L from 10 La Liga fixtures this season — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W L W D W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.50. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Atletico Madrid have played only a handful of La Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in La Liga this season, Atletico Madrid have posted 4W 1D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Atletico Madrid's 1.90 PPG return is 0.90 points per game ahead of Osasuna's 1.00 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Osasuna register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Atletico Madrid in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The previous 10 encounters between these sides heavily favour Atletico Madrid, who boast 8 victories compared to 2 for Osasuna.
The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 12 May 2026, ended 1–2 with Atletico Madrid winning.
It is worth noting that Atletico Madrid have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 8 wins from 10 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
In-Play Data
Osasuna trading profile (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Atletico Madrid trading profile (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Osasuna 54% versus Atletico Madrid 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Osasuna 49% | Atletico Madrid 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Osasuna 1.26 xG and Atletico Madrid 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Osasuna attack 0.788 / defence 0.850 | Atletico Madrid attack 1.251 / defence 1.006. League average goals — home 1.589 / away 1.121. Osasuna's attack strength of 0.788 is below the league average — the 1.26 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Atletico Madrid have an above-average attack strength of 1.251 — the away xG of 1.19 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 41 Osasuna games / 41 Atletico Madrid games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Osasuna 38% | Draw 27% | Atletico Madrid 35%. Fair-value odds: Osasuna 2.63 | Draw 3.70 | Atletico Madrid 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.45. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.45 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Osasuna are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Atletico Madrid (1.90 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Osasuna offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.45 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 50%. This conflicts with form data: Osasuna 70% | Atletico Madrid 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Osasuna vs Atletico Madrid | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Estadio El Sadar • Kick-off: Sunday 14 Feb 2027, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Osasuna 38% | Draw 27% | Atletico Madrid 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 50% | xG Osasuna 1.26 / Atletico Madrid 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Osasuna attack 0.788 / def 0.850 | Atletico Madrid attack 1.251 / def 1.006 | league avg home 1.589 / away 1.121 • Poisson stance: Osasuna (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
Osasuna xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Atletico Madrid xG
50%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Osasuna vs Atletico Madrid kick off?
Osasuna vs Atletico Madrid is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Sunday 14 February 2027 at Estadio El Sadar.
Where is Osasuna vs Atletico Madrid being played?
The match is being played at Estadio El Sadar.
What competition is Osasuna vs Atletico Madrid part of?
Osasuna vs Atletico Madrid is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Osasuna vs Atletico Madrid?
Our statistical model gives Osasuna a 38% chance of winning, Atletico Madrid a 35% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Osasuna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Osasuna vs Atletico Madrid?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Osasuna and Atletico Madrid will score (BTTS).
Will Osasuna vs Atletico Madrid have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Osasuna and Atletico Madrid?
Record (10 meetings): Osasuna 2W | Draws 0 | Atletico Madrid 8W.
What form are Osasuna and Atletico Madrid in?
Osasuna (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-D-W-W. Atletico Madrid (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Osasuna's attack at 0.79x the league average against Atletico Madrid's defence at 1.01x — combine the two and it projects 1.26 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Atletico Madrid's attack versus Osasuna's defence, projects 1.19 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 41/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.3%), 1-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Osasuna Win
38%
2.64
27%
3.66
35%
2.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
0 – 1
10.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
Osasuna xG
Total xG
2.45
1.19
Atletico Madrid xG
2.64
38%
Home win
3.66
27%
Draw
2.88
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
30%
3.30
28%
3.52
Win to Nil
12%
8.69
10%
10.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 10.3 | 6.1 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 12.9 | 7.7 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 8.1 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.4 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Osasuna vs Atletico Madrid?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Osasuna and Atletico Madrid expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Osasuna and 1.19 for Atletico Madrid, a combined total of 2.45.
How confident is the prediction model for Osasuna vs Atletico Madrid?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Osasuna come into this having played 41 games, going 13W 10D 18L for 1.20 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-W-W. It's still early in the season for Osasuna, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Atletico Madrid sit at 1.85 PPG from 41 outings (23W 7D 11L), a run that reads W-L-W-D-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Atletico Madrid, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Atletico Madrid carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.65 PPG clear of Osasuna — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Osasuna's home form reads 9W 6D 5L across 20 games on their own ground, a 1.65 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.20 PPG overall — Osasuna are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Atletico Madrid have taken 1.30 points per game from 20 outings (7W 5D 8L). That's a step down from their 1.85 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Atletico Madrid's season.
Goals in Recent Form
Osasuna are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; Atletico Madrid are on 1.68 scored and 1.15 conceded.
Defensively: Atletico Madrid in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 41 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Osasuna
Early Season
Atletico Madrid
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Osasuna and Atletico Madrid in coming into this match?
Osasuna have gone 13W 10D 18L in their last 41 games (1.20 PPG), while Atletico Madrid have gone 23W 7D 11L in their last 41 (1.85 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Osasuna at home or Atletico Madrid away?
Osasuna's home record (1.65 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Osasuna at home: 1.65 PPG; Atletico Madrid away: 1.30 PPG.
Have Osasuna or Atletico Madrid been keeping clean sheets recently?
Osasuna have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Atletico Madrid in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 12 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Atletico Madrid have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 Feb 2022, when Atletico Madrid won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Osasuna's record when hosting Atletico Madrid specifically: 1W 0D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Osasuna
0
Draws
8
Atletico Madrid
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Osasuna and Atletico Madrid?
From 10 meetings on record, Osasuna have won 2, Atletico Madrid have won 8, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Osasuna and Atletico Madrid last play each other?
They last met on 12 May 2026, when Osasuna 1-2 Atletico Madrid.
Who has won more matches between Osasuna and Atletico Madrid?
Atletico Madrid have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Osasuna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Atletico Madrid are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Osasuna at 70%, Atletico Madrid at 60%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Osasuna) and 50% (Atletico Madrid). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Osasuna home games / Atletico Madrid away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Osasuna play Atletico Madrid?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of Osasuna's games and 60% of Atletico Madrid's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Osasuna vs Atletico Madrid usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Osasuna's matches and 50% of Atletico Madrid's.
Do Osasuna and Atletico Madrid tend to score early?
Osasuna have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Atletico Madrid in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.