Mallorca 1-2 Villarreal – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Mallorca at 35%, yet other data sources diverge — this Mallorca vs Villarreal fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A La Liga encounter, Regular Season - 5 sees Villarreal travel to Estadi Mallorca Son Moix to take on Mallorca. The game is scheduled for Saturday 14 September 2024, 13:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all La Liga games this season, Mallorca have gone 3W 5D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: W D L D W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Mallorca have played only a handful of La Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Mallorca's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 games at Estadi Mallorca Son Moix this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Villarreal — All Games: 5W 4D 1L from 10 La Liga fixtures this season — 1.90 PPG. Last five: D D W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Villarreal have played only a handful of La Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in La Liga this season, Villarreal have posted 5W 4D 1L from 10 away outings — 1.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form points away from home here. Villarreal's 1.90 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Mallorca's 1.40 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 6 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Mallorca, 2 for Villarreal and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Jan 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Mallorca in-play tendencies (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 24% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Villarreal in-play tendencies (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 81% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Mallorca 45% and Villarreal 81% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mallorca 26% | Villarreal 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mallorca 1.07 xG and Villarreal 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mallorca attack 0.782 / defence 0.862 | Villarreal attack 1.180 / defence 0.959. League average goals — home 1.433 / away 0.974. Mallorca's attack strength of 0.782 is below the league average — the 1.07 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 42 Mallorca games / 42 Villarreal games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mallorca 35% | Draw 34% | Villarreal 31%. Fair-value odds: Mallorca 2.86 | Draw 2.94 | Villarreal 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.07. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.07 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Mallorca are the pick at 35% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Villarreal (1.90 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Mallorca offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.07 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 34% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 43%. This conflicts with form data: Mallorca 40% | Villarreal 90% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mallorca vs Villarreal | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Estadi Mallorca Son Moix • Kick-off: Saturday 14 Sep 2024, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mallorca 35% | Draw 34% | Villarreal 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 43% | xG Mallorca 1.07 / Villarreal 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Mallorca attack 0.782 / def 0.862 | Villarreal attack 1.180 / def 0.959 | league avg home 1.433 / away 0.974 • Poisson stance: Mallorca (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.07
Mallorca xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Villarreal xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mallorca vs Villarreal kick off?
Mallorca vs Villarreal kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 14 September 2024 at Estadi Mallorca Son Moix.
What was the final score in Mallorca vs Villarreal?
Mallorca 1 - 2 Villarreal.
Where is Mallorca vs Villarreal being played?
The match is being played at Estadi Mallorca Son Moix.
What competition is Mallorca vs Villarreal part of?
Mallorca vs Villarreal is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Mallorca vs Villarreal?
Our statistical model gives Mallorca a 35% chance of winning, Villarreal a 31% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Mallorca the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mallorca vs Villarreal?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Mallorca and Villarreal will score (BTTS).
Will Mallorca vs Villarreal have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mallorca and Villarreal?
Record (6 meetings): Mallorca 2W | Draws 2 | Villarreal 2W.
What form are Mallorca and Villarreal in?
Mallorca (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-L-D-W. Villarreal (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-D-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Mallorca's attack rating (0.78) and Villarreal's defence rating (0.96), the model arrives at 1.07 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Villarreal's attack versus Mallorca's defence, projects 0.99 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.4%), 1-0 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mallorca Win
35%
2.85
34%
2.92
31%
3.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
0 – 0
12.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.07
Mallorca xG
Total xG
2.07
0.99
Villarreal xG
2.85
35%
Home win
2.92
34%
Draw
3.26
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.30
57%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
37%
2.69
34%
2.93
Win to Nil
13%
7.69
10%
9.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.7 | 12.6 | 6.2 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.6 | 13.5 | 6.7 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 7.3 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mallorca vs Villarreal?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Mallorca and Villarreal expected to score?
The model projects 1.07 expected goals for Mallorca and 0.99 for Villarreal, a combined total of 2.07.
How confident is the prediction model for Mallorca vs Villarreal?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 42 outings, Mallorca have picked up 1.07 PPG on a 9W 18D 15L record — W-D-L-D-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Mallorca, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Villarreal's form line: 16W 13D 13L from 42 games, 1.45 PPG, last five D-D-W-W-D. It's still early in the season for Villarreal, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Mallorca on 1.07 PPG, Villarreal on 1.45. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Mallorca have posted 1.33 PPG from 21 outings (6W 10D 5L).
On the road, Villarreal have gone 8W 7D 6L from 21 away games — 1.48 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Mallorca are averaging 0.83 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game recently; Villarreal are on 1.76 scored and 1.71 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Villarreal in 81%.
Last 42 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mallorca
Early Season
Villarreal
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mallorca and Villarreal in coming into this match?
Mallorca have gone 9W 18D 15L in their last 42 games (1.07 PPG), while Villarreal have gone 16W 13D 13L in their last 42 (1.45 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mallorca at home or Villarreal away?
Villarreal's away record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mallorca at home: 1.33 PPG; Villarreal away: 1.48 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. The two were last together as recently as 10 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 20 Jan 2025, when Villarreal won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Mallorca's record when hosting Villarreal specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Mallorca
3
Draws
5
Villarreal
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mallorca and Villarreal?
From 10 meetings on record, Mallorca have won 2, Villarreal have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Mallorca and Villarreal last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when Mallorca 1-1 Villarreal.
Who has won more matches between Mallorca and Villarreal?
Villarreal have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Mallorca are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Villarreal are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mallorca 43%, Villarreal 81% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 24% (Mallorca) and 57% (Villarreal).
On the defensive side: Mallorca keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Mallorca have failed to score in 38% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mallorca home games / Villarreal away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mallorca play Villarreal?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 43% of Mallorca's games and 81% of Villarreal's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Mallorca vs Villarreal usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 24% of Mallorca's recent games and 57% of Villarreal's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Mallorca and Villarreal tend to score early?
Mallorca have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Villarreal in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Villarreal defy the odds to beat Mallorca 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Villarreal beat Mallorca 1-2 at Estadi Mallorca Son Moix, Regular Season - 5, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mallorca 1.07 xG and Villarreal 0.99 xG, a combined 2.07. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Villarreal outscored their 0.99 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mallorca attack 0.78 / defence 0.86 against Villarreal attack 1.18 / defence 0.96, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mallorca 35% | Draw 34% | Villarreal 31%, with Mallorca to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual Villarreal win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mallorca 26%, Villarreal 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mallorca's trading profile (42 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did.
Villarreal's trading profile (42 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 81% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Mallorca 1.07 PPG, Villarreal 1.45 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Villarreal win broke the near-deadlock. Mallorca (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.81 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.