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Prediction vindicated as Mallorca edge out Valladolid 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Mallorca beat Valladolid 2-1 at Estadi Mallorca Son Moix, Regular Season - 35, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Mallorca 2.17 xG and Valladolid 0.95 xG, a combined 3.12. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mallorca attack 0.84 / defence 0.94 against Valladolid attack 0.85 / defence 1.88, drawn from 72/34 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Mallorca 65% | Draw 19% | Valladolid 15%, with Mallorca to win its most likely call at 65%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mallorca 35%, Valladolid 68%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Mallorca's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.

Valladolid's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Mallorca arrived the stronger side — 1.29 PPG against 0.47. Form held, and they took the win. Mallorca (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm. Valladolid (home/away splits) conceded 2 against a 3.12 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights