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Prediction vindicated as Mallorca edge out Valencia 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Mallorca beat Valencia 2-1 at Estadi Mallorca Son Moix, Regular Season - 15, in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Mallorca 1.18 xG and Valencia 0.65 xG, a combined 1.83. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Mallorca beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mallorca attack 0.71 / defence 0.77 against Valencia attack 0.77 / defence 1.12, drawn from 52/50 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Mallorca 49% | Draw 31% | Valencia 20%, with Mallorca to win its most likely call at 49%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 54% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 33% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mallorca 32%, Valencia 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Mallorca's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

Valencia's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Mallorca 1.20 PPG, Valencia 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Mallorca win broke the near-deadlock. Mallorca (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.84 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights