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Dominant Mallorca run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Sevilla.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Mallorca beat Sevilla 4-1 at Estadi Mallorca Son Moix, Regular Season - 22, in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Mallorca 1.71 xG and Sevilla 1.31 xG, a combined 3.02. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Mallorca beat their projection by 2.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mallorca attack 1.09 / defence 1.18 against Sevilla attack 1.00 / defence 1.09, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Mallorca 46% | Draw 27% | Sevilla 28%, with Mallorca to win its most likely call at 46%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mallorca 48%, Sevilla 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Mallorca's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Sevilla's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Mallorca 1.17 PPG, Sevilla 1.10 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Mallorca win broke the near-deadlock. Mallorca (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm. Sevilla (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.66 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights