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Shock result as Real Betis defy the odds to beat Mallorca 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Real Betis beat Mallorca 1-2 at Estadi Mallorca Son Moix, Regular Season - 24, in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Mallorca 1.77 xG and Real Betis 1.31 xG, a combined 3.08. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mallorca attack 1.21 / defence 1.12 against Real Betis attack 1.03 / defence 0.97, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Mallorca 47% | Draw 26% | Real Betis 27%, with Mallorca to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual Real Betis win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mallorca 49%, Real Betis 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Mallorca's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Real Betis's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Real Betis arrived the stronger side — 1.61 PPG against 1.18. That form edge translated into the three points. Mallorca (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights