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Shock result as Real Betis defy the odds to beat Mallorca 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Real Betis beat Mallorca 0-1 at Estadi Mallorca Son Moix, Regular Season - 21, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Mallorca 1.29 xG and Real Betis 1.02 xG, a combined 2.31. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Mallorca fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mallorca attack 0.89 / defence 1.02 against Real Betis attack 0.87 / defence 1.02, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Mallorca 43% | Draw 28% | Real Betis 29%, with Mallorca to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Real Betis win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 67% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 37% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mallorca 34%, Real Betis 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Mallorca's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Real Betis's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Mallorca 1.21 PPG, Real Betis 1.41 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Real Betis win broke the near-deadlock. Mallorca (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.90 scoring average — below par going forward. Real Betis (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.38 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights