Mallorca 1-1 Levante – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Levante at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Mallorca vs Levante fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Mallorca host Levante at Estadi Mallorca Son Moix in La Liga, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 26 October 2025 at 13:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Mallorca — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 La Liga outings this season, averaging 0.90 points per game. Last five: D L W L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Mallorca, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Mallorca have posted 3W 4D 3L at Estadi Mallorca Son Moix — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all La Liga games this season, Levante have recorded 2W 2D 5L from 9 outings — 0.89 PPG. Last five: W L D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.44 per game is modest, conceding 1.89 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 9 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Levante, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Levante's form when playing away from home: 2W 1D 2L across 5 road games this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 2 clean sheets from 5 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.40 exceeds their overall 0.89 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Mallorca at 0.90 PPG versus Levante's 0.89. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Mallorca have won 1, Levante 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The last 2 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.5 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 8 Jan 2022, ended 0–2 with Levante winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Mallorca trading profile (9 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games).
Levante trading profile (9 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 56% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Mallorca 67% and Levante 56% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mallorca 56% | Levante 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mallorca 1.17 xG and Levante 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mallorca attack 0.842 / defence 0.985 | Levante attack 1.067 / defence 1.012. League average goals — home 1.368 / away 1.171. Data: 47 Mallorca games / 9 Levante games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mallorca 34% | Draw 28% | Levante 38%. Fair-value odds: Mallorca 2.94 | Draw 3.57 | Levante 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.40. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.40 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Levante at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Levante offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.40 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 43% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. Form rates are neutral: Mallorca 70% | Levante 40%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mallorca vs Levante | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Estadi Mallorca Son Moix • Kick-off: Sunday 26 Oct 2025, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mallorca 34% | Draw 28% | Levante 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 49% | xG Mallorca 1.17 / Levante 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: Mallorca attack 0.842 / def 0.985 | Levante attack 1.067 / def 1.012 | league avg home 1.368 / away 1.171 • Poisson stance: Levante (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
Mallorca xG
Expected Goals
1.23
Levante xG
49%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mallorca vs Levante kick off?
Mallorca vs Levante kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 26 October 2025 at Estadi Mallorca Son Moix.
What was the final score in Mallorca vs Levante?
Mallorca 1 - 1 Levante.
Where is Mallorca vs Levante being played?
The match is being played at Estadi Mallorca Son Moix.
What competition is Mallorca vs Levante part of?
Mallorca vs Levante is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Mallorca vs Levante?
Our statistical model gives Mallorca a 34% chance of winning, Levante a 38% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Levante the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mallorca vs Levante?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Mallorca and Levante will score (BTTS).
Will Mallorca vs Levante have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mallorca and Levante?
Record (2 meetings): Mallorca 1W | Draws 0 | Levante 1W.
What form are Mallorca and Levante in?
Mallorca (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-W-L-W. Levante (all comps): 2W-2D-5L in 9 | 0.89 PPG | GF 1.44 / GA 1.89 | L5 W-L-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Mallorca's attacking strength (0.84x league average) is weighed against Levante's defensive record (1.01x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.17. The same calculation in reverse, Levante's attack versus Mallorca's defence, projects 1.23 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 47/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.8%), 0-1 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Levante Win
34%
2.91
28%
3.56
38%
2.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.2%
Away win
1 – 0
10.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
Mallorca xG
Total xG
2.40
1.23
Levante xG
2.91
34%
Home win
3.56
28%
Draw
2.66
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
29%
3.42
31%
3.21
Win to Nil
10%
9.96
12%
8.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.1 | 11.2 | 6.9 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 13.1 | 8.0 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 7.6 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.0 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mallorca vs Levante?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Mallorca and Levante expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Mallorca and 1.23 for Levante, a combined total of 2.40.
How confident is the prediction model for Mallorca vs Levante?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Mallorca come into this having played 9 games, going 2W 2D 5L for 0.89 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-L-W. The sample for Mallorca is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Levante sit at 0.89 PPG from 9 outings (2W 2D 5L), a run that reads W-L-D-W-L across their last five. The sample for Levante is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Mallorca on 0.89 PPG, Levante on 0.89. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Mallorca's home form reads 1W 2D 1L across 4 games on their own ground, a 1.25 PPG return.
Away from home, Levante have taken 1.75 points per game from 4 outings (2W 1D 1L). That's actually stronger than their 0.89 PPG overall record — Levante travel well.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Levante come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Mallorca are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game recently; Levante are on 1.44 scored and 1.89 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Mallorca have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 9 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mallorca
Blended
Levante
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mallorca and Levante in coming into this match?
Mallorca have gone 2W 2D 5L in their last 9 games (0.89 PPG), while Levante have gone 2W 2D 5L in their last 9 (0.89 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mallorca at home or Levante away?
Levante's away record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mallorca at home: 1.25 PPG; Levante away: 1.75 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Mallorca and Levante runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 17 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Mallorca's record when hosting Levante specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Mallorca
1
Draws
2
Levante
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mallorca and Levante?
From 4 meetings on record, Mallorca have won 1, Levante have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Mallorca and Levante last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2026, when Levante 2-0 Mallorca.
Who has won more matches between Mallorca and Levante?
Levante have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Mallorca are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Levante are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 75% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mallorca 50%, Levante 25% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 25% for Mallorca and 25% for Levante.
On the defensive side: Levante in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mallorca home games / Levante away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mallorca play Levante?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Mallorca's recent matches and 25% of Levante's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Mallorca vs Levante usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Mallorca's recent games and 25% of Levante's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Mallorca and Levante tend to score early?
Mallorca have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Levante in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Mallorca and Levante share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estadi Mallorca Son Moix, Regular Season - 10, as Mallorca and Levante drew 1-1 in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mallorca 1.17 xG and Levante 1.23 xG, a combined 2.40. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mallorca attack 0.84 / defence 0.98 against Levante attack 1.07 / defence 1.01, drawn from 47/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mallorca 34% | Draw 28% | Levante 38%, with Levante to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mallorca 56%, Levante 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mallorca's trading profile (9 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Levante's trading profile (9 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Mallorca 0.89 PPG, Levante 0.89 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.