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Poisson model rates Levante at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Mallorca vs Levante fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Match Analysis

Mallorca host Levante at Estadi Mallorca Son Moix in La Liga, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 26 October 2025 at 13:00 UTC.

Form Guide

Mallorca — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 La Liga outings this season, averaging 0.90 points per game. Last five: D L W L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Mallorca, so this record blends games from this season and last.

In front of their own supporters this season, Mallorca have posted 3W 4D 3L at Estadi Mallorca Son Moix — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Across all La Liga games this season, Levante have recorded 2W 2D 5L from 9 outings — 0.89 PPG. Last five: W L D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.44 per game is modest, conceding 1.89 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 9 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Levante, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Levante's form when playing away from home: 2W 1D 2L across 5 road games this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 2 clean sheets from 5 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.40 exceeds their overall 0.89 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — Mallorca at 0.90 PPG versus Levante's 0.89. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

Head to Head

There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Mallorca have won 1, Levante 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.

The last 2 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.5 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 8 Jan 2022, ended 0–2 with Levante winning.

With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

In-Play Data

Mallorca trading profile (9 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games).

Levante trading profile (9 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 56% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Mallorca 67% and Levante 56% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mallorca 56% | Levante 67%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Mallorca 1.17 xG and Levante 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mallorca attack 0.842 / defence 0.985 | Levante attack 1.067 / defence 1.012. League average goals — home 1.368 / away 1.171. Data: 47 Mallorca games / 9 Levante games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Mallorca 34% | Draw 28% | Levante 38%. Fair-value odds: Mallorca 2.94 | Draw 3.57 | Levante 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.40. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.40 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Levante at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Levante offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.40 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 43% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. Form rates are neutral: Mallorca 70% | Levante 40%.

The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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