🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Mallorca cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Las Palmas.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Mallorca beat Las Palmas 3-1 at Estadi Mallorca Son Moix, Regular Season - 24, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Mallorca 1.24 xG and Las Palmas 1.16 xG, a combined 2.40. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Mallorca beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mallorca attack 0.78 / defence 1.01 against Las Palmas attack 0.98 / defence 1.12, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Mallorca 38% | Draw 28% | Las Palmas 34%, with Mallorca to win its most likely call at 38%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 37% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mallorca 33%, Las Palmas 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Mallorca's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.

Las Palmas's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Mallorca 1.16 PPG, Las Palmas 1.03 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Mallorca win broke the near-deadlock. Mallorca (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.90 average — above their attacking norm. Las Palmas (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.60 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights