Mallorca vs Girona – Match Report

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Shock result as Mallorca defy the odds to beat Girona 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Mallorca beat Girona 2-1 at Estadi Mallorca Son Moix, Regular Season - 17, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Mallorca 1.04 xG and Girona 1.11 xG, a combined 2.15. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Mallorca beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mallorca attack 0.80 / defence 1.02 against Girona attack 0.93 / defence 0.90, drawn from 55/54 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Mallorca 34% | Draw 29% | Girona 37%, with Girona to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Mallorca win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mallorca 33%, Girona 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Mallorca's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.

Girona's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Girona arrived the stronger side — 1.91 PPG against 1.17. Form was overturned, with Mallorca winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Mallorca (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.89 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights