🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Prediction vindicated as Mallorca edge out Getafe 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Mallorca beat Getafe 1-0 at Estadi Mallorca Son Moix, Regular Season - 12, in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Mallorca 1.14 xG and Getafe 1.03 xG, a combined 2.17. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Getafe landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mallorca attack 0.83 / defence 0.98 against Getafe attack 0.94 / defence 0.97, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Mallorca 38% | Draw 30% | Getafe 32%, with Mallorca to win its most likely call at 38%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 64% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mallorca 43%, Getafe 37%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Mallorca's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.

Getafe's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Mallorca 1.16 PPG, Getafe 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Mallorca win broke the near-deadlock. Mallorca (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.12 average — tighter than their form line. Getafe (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights