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Shock result as Getafe defy the odds to beat Mallorca 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Getafe beat Mallorca 1-2 at Estadi Mallorca Son Moix, Regular Season - 37, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Mallorca 1.06 xG and Getafe 1.00 xG, a combined 2.07. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Getafe outscored their 1.00 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mallorca attack 0.83 / defence 0.96 against Getafe attack 0.90 / defence 0.92, drawn from 74/74 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Mallorca 36% | Draw 30% | Getafe 33%, with Mallorca to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Getafe win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 35% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mallorca 34%, Getafe 36%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Mallorca's trading profile (74 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.

Getafe's trading profile (74 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Mallorca 1.18 PPG, Getafe 1.11 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Getafe win broke the near-deadlock. Mallorca (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.95 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Getafe (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.05 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights