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Prediction vindicated as Mallorca edge out Espanyol 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Mallorca beat Espanyol 2-1 at Estadi Mallorca Son Moix, Regular Season - 28, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Mallorca 1.91 xG and Espanyol 1.49 xG, a combined 3.40. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mallorca attack 1.02 / defence 1.14 against Espanyol attack 1.17 / defence 1.23, drawn from 65/65 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Mallorca 48% | Draw 23% | Espanyol 30%, with Mallorca to win its most likely call at 48%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mallorca 49%, Espanyol 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Mallorca's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Espanyol's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Mallorca 1.12 PPG, Espanyol 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Mallorca win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights