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Prediction vindicated as Mallorca edge out Espanyol 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Mallorca beat Espanyol 2-1 at Estadi Mallorca Son Moix, Regular Season - 28, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Mallorca 1.47 xG and Espanyol 0.84 xG, a combined 2.31. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mallorca attack 0.88 / defence 1.00 against Espanyol attack 0.75 / defence 1.17, drawn from 65/26 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Mallorca 52% | Draw 26% | Espanyol 21%, with Mallorca to win its most likely call at 52%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mallorca 38%, Espanyol 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Mallorca's trading profile (26 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

Espanyol's trading profile (26 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Mallorca 1.38 PPG, Espanyol 1.08 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Mallorca win broke the near-deadlock. Mallorca (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.08 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights