Levante vs Valencia – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Levante at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Levante vs Valencia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Levante host Valencia at in La Liga, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 3 January 2027 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Levante — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 La Liga outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: D D W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Levante, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Levante have posted 7W 1D 2L at — 2.20 PPG. They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Levante are significantly better at than their overall form suggests.
Across all La Liga games this season, Valencia have recorded 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L D D L W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Valencia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Valencia away from home this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 away games — 1.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.70 exceeds their overall 0.80 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Levante 1.00 PPG, Valencia 0.80 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The previous 4 encounters between these sides heavily favour Valencia, who boast 3 victories compared to 0 for Levante.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 4 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 15 Feb 2026, ended 0–2 with Valencia winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Valencia have won 3 of 4 previous encounters, and at 3.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Profile
Levante in-play tendencies (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Valencia in-play tendencies (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Levante 53% versus Valencia 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Levante 49% | Valencia 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Levante 1.78 xG and Valencia 1.41 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Levante attack 1.273 / defence 1.255 | Valencia attack 0.899 / defence 0.868. League average goals — home 1.611 / away 1.245. Levante carry an above-average attack strength of 1.273 — their λ of 1.78 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 49 Levante games / 49 Valencia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Levante 45% | Draw 25% | Valencia 29%. Fair-value odds: Levante 2.22 | Draw 4.00 | Valencia 3.45. Levante hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.19. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.19 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.78 / 1.41) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Levante are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Levante offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.19 combined xG gives a 62% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 64% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Levante 60% | Valencia 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Levante vs Valencia | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: • Kick-off: Sunday 3 Jan 2027, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Levante 45% | Draw 25% | Valencia 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 64% | xG Levante 1.78 / Valencia 1.41 • Poisson strength factors: Levante attack 1.273 / def 1.255 | Valencia attack 0.899 / def 0.868 | league avg home 1.611 / away 1.245 • Poisson stance: Levante (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.78
Levante xG
Expected Goals
1.41
Valencia xG
64%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Levante vs Valencia kick off?
Levante vs Valencia is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Sunday 3 January 2027.
What competition is Levante vs Valencia part of?
Levante vs Valencia is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Levante vs Valencia?
Our statistical model gives Levante a 45% chance of winning, Valencia a 29% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Levante the favourite.
Will both teams score in Levante vs Valencia?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Levante and Valencia will score (BTTS).
Will Levante vs Valencia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Levante and Valencia?
Record (4 meetings): Levante 0W | Draws 1 | Valencia 3W.
What form are Levante and Valencia in?
Levante (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-D-W-L-L. Valencia (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Levante's attack rating (1.27) and Valencia's defence rating (0.87), the model arrives at 1.78 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Valencia's attack versus Levante's defence, projects 1.41 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-2 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Levante Win
45%
2.21
25%
3.96
29%
3.40
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
1 – 0
7.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.78
Levante xG
Total xG
3.19
1.41
Valencia xG
2.21
45%
Home win
3.96
25%
Draw
3.40
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.57
36%
BTTS No
2.76
Clean Sheet
25%
4.08
17%
5.93
Win to Nil
11%
8.99
5%
20.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 5.8 | 4.1 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 10.3 | 7.3 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 9.2 | 6.5 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 5.5 | 3.8 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.4 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Levante vs Valencia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are Levante and Valencia expected to score?
The model projects 1.78 expected goals for Levante and 1.41 for Valencia, a combined total of 3.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Levante vs Valencia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Levante come into this having played 49 games, going 13W 13D 23L for 1.06 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-W-L-L. The sample for Levante is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Valencia sit at 1.18 PPG from 49 outings (15W 13D 21L), a run that reads L-D-D-L-W across their last five. The sample for Valencia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Levante on 1.06 PPG, Valencia on 1.18. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Levante's home form reads 9W 6D 9L across 24 games on their own ground, a 1.38 PPG return.
Away from home, Valencia have taken 1.08 points per game from 24 outings (7W 5D 12L).
The Goals Picture
Levante are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; Valencia are on 1.10 scored and 1.47 conceded.
Last 49 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Levante
Blended
Valencia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Levante and Valencia in coming into this match?
Levante have gone 13W 13D 23L in their last 49 games (1.06 PPG), while Valencia have gone 15W 13D 21L in their last 49 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Levante at home or Valencia away?
Levante's home record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Levante at home: 1.38 PPG; Valencia away: 1.08 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Levante and Valencia runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 15 February 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Valencia go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Levante's record when hosting Valencia specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Levante
1
Draws
3
Valencia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Levante and Valencia?
From 4 meetings on record, Levante have won 0, Valencia have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Levante and Valencia last play each other?
They last met on 15 February 2026, when Levante 0-2 Valencia.
Who has won more matches between Levante and Valencia?
Valencia have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Levante are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Valencia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Levante 58%, Valencia 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Levante) and 46% (Valencia).
On the defensive side: Valencia in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Levante home games / Valencia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Levante play Valencia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Levante's recent matches and 46% of Valencia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Levante vs Valencia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Levante's recent games and 46% of Valencia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Levante and Valencia tend to score early?
Levante have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Valencia in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.