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Valencia cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Levante.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Valencia beat Levante 0-2 at Estadio Ciudad de Valencia, Regular Season - 24, in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Levante 1.33 xG and Valencia 1.29 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Levante fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Levante attack 0.75 / defence 1.28 against Valencia attack 0.90 / defence 1.17, drawn from 22/61 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Levante 36% | Draw 29% | Valencia 34%, with Levante to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Valencia win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Levante 50%, Valencia 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Levante's trading profile (22 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Valencia's trading profile (22 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Levante 0.82 PPG, Valencia 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Valencia win broke the near-deadlock. Levante (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.10 scoring average — below par going forward. Valencia (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.80 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.30 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights