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Dominant Rayo Vallecano run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Levante.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Rayo Vallecano beat Levante 0-3 at Estadio Ciudad de Valencia, Regular Season - 9, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Levante 1.28 xG and Rayo Vallecano 1.71 xG, a combined 2.99. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Levante fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Rayo Vallecano outscored their 1.71 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Levante attack 0.93 / defence 1.47 against Rayo Vallecano attack 1.01 / defence 0.97, drawn from 8/46 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Levante 28% | Draw 25% | Rayo Vallecano 47%, with Rayo Vallecano to win its most likely call at 47%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Levante 62%, Rayo Vallecano 25%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Levante's trading profile (8 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.

Rayo Vallecano's trading profile (8 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Levante 1.00 PPG, Rayo Vallecano 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Rayo Vallecano win broke the near-deadlock. Levante (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.67 scoring average — below par going forward. Rayo Vallecano (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.67 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights