Levante vs Racing Santander – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Levante at 70%, yet other data sources diverge — this Levante vs Racing Santander fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Racing Santander make the trip to to face Levante in La Liga, Regular Season - 14. The match kicks off on Sunday 29 November 2026 at 16:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Levante have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 La Liga outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: L L D W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Levante have played only a handful of La Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Levante's form when playing at home: 7W 1D 2L across 10 games at this term (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Levante are significantly better at than their overall form suggests.
Racing Santander (all games): 1W 1D 2L across 4 La Liga outings this term — 1.00 points per game. Last five: D L W L. They are scoring at 1.75 per game and conceding 2.00. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 75% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Racing Santander have played only a handful of La Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The form ledger tips toward Levante. A 0.50 PPG lead over Racing Santander (1.50 vs 1.00) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Trading Data
Levante goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (4 games): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time; they fail to score in 75% of games.
Racing Santander goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (4 games): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games; Over 3.5 in 75%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Levante 25% versus Racing Santander 75%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Levante 50% | Racing Santander 75%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Levante 2.60 xG and Racing Santander 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Levante attack 1.310 / defence 1.057 | Racing Santander attack 0.878 / defence 1.220. League average goals — home 1.627 / away 1.184. Levante carry an above-average attack strength of 1.310 — their λ of 2.60 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Racing Santander bring a strong defensive rating of 1.220 — this is suppressing Levante's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 42 Levante games / 4 Racing Santander games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Levante 70% | Draw 17% | Racing Santander 14%. Fair-value odds: Levante 1.43 | Draw 5.88 | Racing Santander 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Levante (70%) — a 56pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 71% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.70. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 71% — a total xG of 3.70 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (2.60 / 1.10) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Levante at 70% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
The Poisson model projects 3.70 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 71% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Levante 40% | Racing Santander 75% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Levante vs Racing Santander | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: • Kick-off: Sunday 29 Nov 2026, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Levante 70% | Draw 17% | Racing Santander 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 71% | BTTS 62% | xG Levante 2.60 / Racing Santander 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Levante attack 1.310 / def 1.057 | Racing Santander attack 0.878 / def 1.220 | league avg home 1.627 / away 1.184 • Poisson stance: Levante (70%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.60
Levante xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Racing Santander xG
62%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
71%
Over 2.5
51%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Levante vs Racing Santander kick off?
Levante vs Racing Santander is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Sunday 29 November 2026.
What competition is Levante vs Racing Santander part of?
Levante vs Racing Santander is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Levante vs Racing Santander?
Our statistical model gives Levante a 70% chance of winning, Racing Santander a 14% chance, and a 17% chance of a draw — making Levante the favourite.
Will both teams score in Levante vs Racing Santander?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Levante and Racing Santander will score (BTTS).
Will Levante vs Racing Santander have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 71%.
What is the head-to-head record between Levante and Racing Santander?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Levante and Racing Santander in?
Levante (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-D-W-D. Racing Santander (all comps): 1W-1D-2L in 4 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.75 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Levante's attack at 1.31x the league average against Racing Santander's defence at 1.22x — combine the two and it projects 2.60 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Racing Santander's attack (0.88x) against Levante's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 1.10.
These ratings are built from 42/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (8.4%), 1-1 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Levante Win
70%
1.44
17%
6.03
14%
7.22
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
8.4%
Home win
3 – 1
8.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.60
Levante xG
Total xG
3.70
1.10
Racing Santander xG
1.44
70%
Home win
6.03
17%
Draw
7.22
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
71%
Over 2.5
1.41
29%
Under 2.5
3.45
51%
Over 3.5
1.96
49%
Under 3.5
2.04
31%
Over 4.5
3.23
69%
Under 4.5
1.45
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.62
38%
BTTS No
2.62
Clean Sheet
33%
3.00
7%
13.48
Win to Nil
23%
4.31
1%
97.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.5 | 2.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 6.4 | 7.1 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 9.2 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.3 | 8.0 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.7 | 5.2 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 2.5 | 2.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Levante vs Racing Santander?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.2%.
How many goals are Levante and Racing Santander expected to score?
The model projects 2.60 expected goals for Levante and 1.10 for Racing Santander, a combined total of 3.70.
How confident is the prediction model for Levante vs Racing Santander?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 70%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 4 outings, Levante have picked up 1.25 PPG on a 1W 2D 1L record — L-D-W-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Levante, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Racing Santander's form line: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games, 1.00 PPG, last five D-L-W-L. It's still early in the season for Racing Santander, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.25 PPG for Levante against 1.00 for Racing Santander. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Attack vs Defence
Levante are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Racing Santander are on 1.75 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Levante have seen both teams score in 25% of their recent games; Racing Santander in 75%.
Defensively: Levante have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 4 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Levante
Early Season
Racing Santander
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Levante and Racing Santander in coming into this match?
Levante have gone 1W 2D 1L in their last 4 games (1.25 PPG), while Racing Santander have gone 1W 1D 2L in their last 4 (1.00 PPG).
Have Levante or Racing Santander been keeping clean sheets recently?
Levante have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Racing Santander in 0%.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Levante see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Racing Santander are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Levante 25%, Racing Santander 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for Levante and 75% for Racing Santander. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 75% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Levante keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Levante have failed to score in 75% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Levante home games / Racing Santander away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Levante play Racing Santander?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of Levante's recent matches and 75% of Racing Santander's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Levante vs Racing Santander usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Levante's matches and 75% of Racing Santander's.
Do Levante and Racing Santander tend to score early?
Levante have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Racing Santander in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.