Levante vs Racing Santander – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Levante at 69%, yet other data sources diverge — this Levante vs Racing Santander fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Racing Santander make the trip to to face Levante in La Liga, Regular Season - 14. The match kicks off on Sunday 29 November 2026 at 16:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Levante have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 La Liga outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: W L L D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Levante have played only a handful of La Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Levante's form when playing at home: 7W 1D 2L across 10 games at this term (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — Levante are significantly better at than their overall form suggests.
Racing Santander (all games): 1W 1D 1L across 3 La Liga outings this term — 1.33 points per game. Last five: D L W. They are scoring at 1.67 per game and conceding 1.67. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Racing Santander have played only a handful of La Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.70 PPG for Levante against 1.33 for Racing Santander. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading Data
Levante goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (3 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; they fail to score in 67% of games.
Racing Santander goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (3 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; Over 3.5 in 67%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Levante 33% versus Racing Santander 67%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Levante 67% | Racing Santander 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Levante 2.31 xG and Racing Santander 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Levante attack 1.340 / defence 1.064 | Racing Santander attack 0.724 / defence 1.070. League average goals — home 1.609 / away 1.138. Levante carry an above-average attack strength of 1.340 — their λ of 2.31 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 41 Levante games / 3 Racing Santander games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Levante 69% | Draw 18% | Racing Santander 13%. Fair-value odds: Levante 1.45 | Draw 5.56 | Racing Santander 7.69. The model has a clear lean to Levante (69%) — a 56pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 3.18. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.18 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Levante at 69% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.18 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 62% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Levante 40% | Racing Santander 67%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Levante vs Racing Santander | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: • Kick-off: Sunday 29 Nov 2026, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Levante 69% | Draw 18% | Racing Santander 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 53% | xG Levante 2.31 / Racing Santander 0.88 • Poisson strength factors: Levante attack 1.340 / def 1.064 | Racing Santander attack 0.724 / def 1.070 | league avg home 1.609 / away 1.138 • Poisson stance: Levante (69%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.31
Levante xG
Expected Goals
0.88
Racing Santander xG
53%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Levante vs Racing Santander kick off?
Levante vs Racing Santander is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Sunday 29 November 2026.
What competition is Levante vs Racing Santander part of?
Levante vs Racing Santander is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Levante vs Racing Santander?
Our statistical model gives Levante a 69% chance of winning, Racing Santander a 13% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making Levante the favourite.
Will both teams score in Levante vs Racing Santander?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Levante and Racing Santander will score (BTTS).
Will Levante vs Racing Santander have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Levante and Racing Santander?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Levante and Racing Santander in?
Levante (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-L-D-W. Racing Santander (all comps): 1W-1D-1L in 3 | 1.33 PPG | GF 1.67 / GA 1.67 | L5 D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Levante's attack at 1.34x the league average against Racing Santander's defence at 1.07x — combine the two and it projects 2.31 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Racing Santander's attack (0.72x) against Levante's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 0.88.
These ratings are built from 41/3 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 11.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 1-1 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Levante Win
69%
1.44
18%
5.60
13%
7.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
11.0%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.31
Levante xG
Total xG
3.18
0.88
Racing Santander xG
1.44
69%
Home win
5.60
18%
Draw
7.87
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
42%
2.40
10%
10.03
Win to Nil
29%
3.46
1%
78.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 3.6 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 9.6 | 8.4 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.0 | 9.7 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 8.5 | 7.4 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 4.9 | 4.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.3 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Levante vs Racing Santander?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.0%.
How many goals are Levante and Racing Santander expected to score?
The model projects 2.31 expected goals for Levante and 0.88 for Racing Santander, a combined total of 3.18.
How confident is the prediction model for Levante vs Racing Santander?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 69%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 3 outings, Levante have picked up 1.33 PPG on a 1W 1D 1L record — L-D-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Levante, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Racing Santander's form line: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games, 1.33 PPG, last five D-L-W. It's still early in the season for Racing Santander, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.33 PPG for Levante against 1.33 for Racing Santander. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Attack vs Defence
Levante are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; Racing Santander are on 1.67 scored and 1.67 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Racing Santander in 67%.
Last 3 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Levante
Early Season
Racing Santander
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Levante and Racing Santander in coming into this match?
Levante have gone 1W 1D 1L in their last 3 games (1.33 PPG), while Racing Santander have gone 1W 1D 1L in their last 3 (1.33 PPG).
Have Levante or Racing Santander been keeping clean sheets recently?
Levante have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Racing Santander in 0%.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Levante are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Racing Santander are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Levante 33%, Racing Santander 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Levante and 67% for Racing Santander. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 67% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Levante keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Levante have failed to score in 67% of games; Racing Santander in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Levante home games / Racing Santander away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Levante play Racing Santander?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Levante's recent matches and 67% of Racing Santander's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Levante vs Racing Santander usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Levante's matches and 67% of Racing Santander's.
Do Levante and Racing Santander tend to score early?
Levante have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Racing Santander in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.