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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Levante edge out Elche 3-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Levante beat Elche 3-2 at Estadio Ciudad de Valencia, Regular Season - 21, in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Levante 1.30 xG and Elche 1.22 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Levante beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Levante attack 0.75 / defence 1.39 against Elche attack 0.80 / defence 1.22, drawn from 19/20 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Levante 37% | Draw 29% | Elche 33%, with Levante to win its most likely call at 37%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Levante 47%, Elche 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Levante's trading profile (19 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

Elche's trading profile (19 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Elche arrived the stronger side — 1.21 PPG against 0.74. Form was overturned, with Levante winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Levante (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm. Elche (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.88 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.88 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights