Levante vs Deportivo La Coruna – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Levante at 56%, yet other data sources diverge — this Levante vs Deportivo La Coruna fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a La Liga clash, Regular Season - 26 as Levante welcome Deportivo La Coruna to . Kick-off is set for Sunday 28 February 2027 at 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all La Liga games this season, Levante have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: D W D L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Levante have played only a handful of La Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Levante's home record at : 7W 1D 2L from 10 La Liga appearances (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Levante are significantly better at than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Deportivo La Coruna stand at 2W 4D 1L from 7 La Liga matches — 1.43 PPG. Last five: W W D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.43 per game is modest, conceding 1.14 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 86% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Deportivo La Coruna have played only a handful of La Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Deportivo La Coruna's away record: 1W 2D 0L from 3 road trips in La Liga this season (1.67 PPG). Away from home they average 1.67 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.40 PPG (Levante) versus 1.43 (Deportivo La Coruna). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Trading Patterns
Levante in-play and half-time data (7 games): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games; Over 3.5 in 43%; they fail to score in 43% of games.
Deportivo La Coruna in-play and half-time data (7 games): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 86% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Levante 57% and Deportivo La Coruna 86% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Levante 71% | Deportivo La Coruna 29%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Levante 2.37 xG and Deportivo La Coruna 1.52 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Levante attack 1.367 / defence 1.199 | Deportivo La Coruna attack 1.018 / defence 1.068. League average goals — home 1.621 / away 1.250. Levante carry an above-average attack strength of 1.367 — their λ of 2.37 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 44 Levante games / 7 Deportivo La Coruna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Levante 56% | Draw 20% | Deportivo La Coruna 24%. Fair-value odds: Levante 1.79 | Draw 5.00 | Deportivo La Coruna 4.17. The model has a clear lean to Levante (56%) — a 32pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 75% | BTTS probability 71% | Total xG 3.89. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 75% — a total xG of 3.89 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 71% reflects that both xG figures (2.37 / 1.52) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Levante are the pick at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.89 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 75% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 71%. Form rates corroborate: Levante 50% | Deportivo La Coruna 100% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Levante vs Deportivo La Coruna | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: • Kick-off: Sunday 28 Feb 2027, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Levante 56% | Draw 20% | Deportivo La Coruna 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 75% | BTTS 71% | xG Levante 2.37 / Deportivo La Coruna 1.52 • Poisson strength factors: Levante attack 1.367 / def 1.199 | Deportivo La Coruna attack 1.018 / def 1.068 | league avg home 1.621 / away 1.250 • Poisson stance: Levante (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.37
Levante xG
Expected Goals
1.52
Deportivo La Coruna xG
71%
BTTS
91%
Over 1.5
75%
Over 2.5
54%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Levante vs Deportivo La Coruna kick off?
Levante vs Deportivo La Coruna is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Sunday 28 February 2027.
What competition is Levante vs Deportivo La Coruna part of?
Levante vs Deportivo La Coruna is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Levante vs Deportivo La Coruna?
Our statistical model gives Levante a 56% chance of winning, Deportivo La Coruna a 24% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Levante the favourite.
Will both teams score in Levante vs Deportivo La Coruna?
Our model estimates a 71% probability that both Levante and Deportivo La Coruna will score (BTTS).
Will Levante vs Deportivo La Coruna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 75%.
What is the head-to-head record between Levante and Deportivo La Coruna?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Levante and Deportivo La Coruna in?
Levante (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-W-D-L-L. Deportivo La Coruna (all comps): 2W-4D-1L in 7 | 1.43 PPG | GF 1.43 / GA 1.14 | L5 W-W-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Levante's attack at 1.37x the league average against Deportivo La Coruna's defence at 1.07x — combine the two and it projects 2.37 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Deportivo La Coruna's attack versus Levante's defence, projects 1.52 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-1 carries the highest individual probability at 8.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (8.3%), 3-1 (6.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Levante Win
56%
1.79
20%
4.89
24%
4.22
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.4%
Draw
3 – 1
6.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.37
Levante xG
Total xG
3.89
1.52
Deportivo La Coruna xG
1.79
56%
Home win
4.89
20%
Draw
4.22
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
90%
Over 1.5
1.11
10%
Under 1.5
10.00
75%
Over 2.5
1.33
25%
Under 2.5
4.00
54%
Over 3.5
1.85
46%
Under 3.5
2.17
35%
Over 4.5
2.86
65%
Under 4.5
1.54
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
71%
BTTS Yes
1.40
29%
BTTS No
3.50
Clean Sheet
22%
4.60
9%
10.65
Win to Nil
12%
8.23
2%
44.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.0 | 3.1 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 4.8 | 7.4 | 5.6 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 8.7 | 6.6 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 6.9 | 5.2 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 2.7 | 4.1 | 3.1 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.9 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Levante vs Deportivo La Coruna?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.7%.
How many goals are Levante and Deportivo La Coruna expected to score?
The model projects 2.37 expected goals for Levante and 1.52 for Deportivo La Coruna, a combined total of 3.89.
How confident is the prediction model for Levante vs Deportivo La Coruna?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Levante come into this having played 7 games, going 1W 2D 4L for 0.71 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-D-L-L. It's still early in the season for Levante, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Deportivo La Coruna sit at 1.43 PPG from 7 outings (2W 4D 1L), a run that reads W-W-D-L-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Deportivo La Coruna, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Deportivo La Coruna carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.72 PPG clear of Levante — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
The Goals Picture
Levante are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Deportivo La Coruna are on 1.43 scored and 1.14 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Deportivo La Coruna in 86%.
Last 7 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Levante
Early Season
Deportivo La Coruna
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Levante and Deportivo La Coruna in coming into this match?
Levante have gone 1W 2D 4L in their last 7 games (0.71 PPG), while Deportivo La Coruna have gone 2W 4D 1L in their last 7 (1.43 PPG).
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Levante are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Deportivo La Coruna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Levante at 57%, Deportivo La Coruna at 86%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 71% (Levante) and 29% (Deportivo La Coruna).
On the defensive side: Levante have failed to score in 43% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Levante home games / Deportivo La Coruna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Levante play Deportivo La Coruna?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Levante's games and 86% of Deportivo La Coruna's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Levante vs Deportivo La Coruna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 71% of Levante's recent games and 29% of Deportivo La Coruna's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Levante and Deportivo La Coruna tend to score early?
Levante have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Deportivo La Coruna in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.