🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Prediction vindicated as Celta Vigo edge out Levante 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Celta Vigo beat Levante 1-2 at Estadio Ciudad de Valencia, Regular Season - 11, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Levante 1.27 xG and Celta Vigo 2.29 xG, a combined 3.56. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Levante attack 0.81 / defence 1.58 against Celta Vigo attack 1.23 / defence 1.10, drawn from 10/48 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Levante 20% | Draw 20% | Celta Vigo 60%, with Celta Vigo to win its most likely call at 60%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 48% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Levante 60%, Celta Vigo 20%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 75%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Levante's trading profile (10 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Celta Vigo's trading profile (10 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 90% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Levante 0.90 PPG, Celta Vigo 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Celta Vigo win broke the near-deadlock. Levante (home/away splits) conceded 2 against a 3.00 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights