Levante vs Alaves – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Levante at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Levante vs Alaves fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A La Liga encounter, Regular Season - 16 sees Alaves travel to to take on Levante. The game is scheduled for Sunday 13 December 2026, 16:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Levante stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 La Liga matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D L L D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Levante, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Levante's form when playing at home: 7W 2D 1L across 10 games at this term (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Levante are significantly better at than their overall form suggests.
Across all La Liga games this season, Alaves have recorded 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Alaves, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Alaves's form when playing away from home: 2W 4D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Levante 1.00 PPG, Alaves 1.10 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Levante register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Alaves in 80% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, Levante have won 2, Alaves 2, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 4 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 27 Feb 2026, ended 2–0 with Levante winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Levante trading profile (46 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Alaves trading profile (46 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 61% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Levante 52% versus Alaves 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Levante 48% | Alaves 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Levante 2.03 xG and Alaves 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Levante attack 1.354 / defence 1.257 | Alaves attack 0.829 / defence 0.916. League average goals — home 1.635 / away 1.277. Levante carry an above-average attack strength of 1.354 — their λ of 2.03 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 46 Levante games / 47 Alaves games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Levante 52% | Draw 24% | Alaves 24%. Fair-value odds: Levante 1.92 | Draw 4.17 | Alaves 4.17. Levante hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.36. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.36 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (2.03 / 1.33) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Levante are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Levante offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 3.36 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 65% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 65%. Form rates corroborate: Levante 60% | Alaves 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Levante vs Alaves | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: • Kick-off: Sunday 13 Dec 2026, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Levante 52% | Draw 24% | Alaves 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 65% | xG Levante 2.03 / Alaves 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: Levante attack 1.354 / def 1.257 | Alaves attack 0.829 / def 0.916 | league avg home 1.635 / away 1.277 • Poisson stance: Levante (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.03
Levante xG
Expected Goals
1.33
Alaves xG
65%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Levante vs Alaves kick off?
Levante vs Alaves is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Sunday 13 December 2026.
What competition is Levante vs Alaves part of?
Levante vs Alaves is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Levante vs Alaves?
Our statistical model gives Levante a 52% chance of winning, Alaves a 24% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Levante the favourite.
Will both teams score in Levante vs Alaves?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Levante and Alaves will score (BTTS).
Will Levante vs Alaves have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between Levante and Alaves?
Record (4 meetings): Levante 2W | Draws 0 | Alaves 2W.
What form are Levante and Alaves in?
Levante (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-L-L-D-D. Alaves (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Levante's attack at 1.35x the league average against Alaves's defence at 0.92x — combine the two and it projects 2.03 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Alaves's attack versus Levante's defence, projects 1.33 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 46/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Levante Win
52%
1.91
24%
4.17
24%
4.22
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.4%
Draw
2 – 0
7.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.03
Levante xG
Total xG
3.36
1.33
Alaves xG
1.91
52%
Home win
4.17
24%
Draw
4.22
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.53
35%
BTTS No
2.87
Clean Sheet
26%
3.79
13%
7.61
Win to Nil
14%
7.24
3%
32.11
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.5 | 4.6 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 9.4 | 6.2 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 9.5 | 6.3 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 6.4 | 4.3 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.5 | 3.3 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Levante vs Alaves?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.6%.
How many goals are Levante and Alaves expected to score?
The model projects 2.03 expected goals for Levante and 1.33 for Alaves, a combined total of 3.36.
How confident is the prediction model for Levante vs Alaves?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Levante's recent record stands at 12W 13D 21L from 46 games, a 1.07 PPG return, with D-L-L-D-D in the last five. The sample for Levante is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Alaves, meanwhile, have gone 13W 12D 21L across 46 games — 1.11 PPG, with L-L-D-L-L in their last five. The sample for Alaves is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Levante on 1.07 PPG, Alaves on 1.11. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Levante have managed 8W 6D 8L from 22 games — 1.36 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Alaves's away record stands at 4W 6D 12L across 22 trips, a 0.82 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Levante come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Levante are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; Alaves are on 1.20 scored and 1.41 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Alaves in 61%.
Last 46 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Levante
Blended
Alaves
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Levante and Alaves in coming into this match?
Levante have gone 12W 13D 21L in their last 46 games (1.07 PPG), while Alaves have gone 13W 12D 21L in their last 46 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Levante at home or Alaves away?
Levante's home record (1.36 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Levante at home: 1.36 PPG; Alaves away: 0.82 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 27 February 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Levante's record when hosting Alaves specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Levante
0
Draws
2
Alaves
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Levante and Alaves?
From 4 meetings on record, Levante have won 2, Alaves have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Levante and Alaves last play each other?
They last met on 27 February 2026, when Levante 2-0 Alaves.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Levante are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Alaves see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Levante 59%, Alaves 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Levante) and 46% (Alaves).
On the defensive side: Alaves in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Levante home games / Alaves away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Levante play Alaves?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Levante's games and 59% of Alaves's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Levante vs Alaves usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Levante's recent games and 46% of Alaves's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Levante and Alaves tend to score early?
Levante have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Alaves in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.