Leganes 0-0 Valencia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Leganes at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Leganes vs Valencia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A La Liga encounter, Regular Season - 9 sees Valencia travel to Estadio Municipal de Butarque to take on Leganes. The game is scheduled for Friday 4 October 2024, 20:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Leganes stand at 1W 4D 3L from 8 La Liga matches — 0.88 PPG. Last five: L L L D D. They are averaging 0.62 goals per game and conceding 1.12 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 8 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Leganes, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Leganes's home record at Estadio Municipal de Butarque: 1W 0D 2L from 3 La Liga appearances (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.67 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game.
Across all La Liga games this season, Valencia have recorded 1W 3D 6L from 10 outings — 0.60 PPG. Last five: D L W D L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Valencia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in La Liga this season, Valencia have posted 2W 1D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.88 PPG (Leganes) versus 0.60 (Valencia). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
In-Play Profile
Leganes in-play tendencies (8 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 38% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 12% of games; they fail to score in 50% of games.
Valencia in-play tendencies (8 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; they fail to score in 50% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Leganes 50% versus Valencia 38%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Leganes 12% | Valencia 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Leganes 1.31 xG and Valencia 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Leganes attack 0.686 / defence 1.182 | Valencia attack 0.726 / defence 1.307. League average goals — home 1.463 / away 1.043. Leganes's attack strength of 0.686 is below the league average — the 1.31 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Valencia bring a strong defensive rating of 1.307 — this is suppressing Leganes's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 8 Leganes games / 46 Valencia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Leganes 43% | Draw 35% | Valencia 22%. Fair-value odds: Leganes 2.33 | Draw 2.86 | Valencia 4.55. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.21. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.21 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Leganes at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 35% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Leganes offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.21 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 38% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. Form rates corroborate: Leganes 33% | Valencia 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Leganes vs Valencia | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Estadio Municipal de Butarque • Kick-off: Friday 4 Oct 2024, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Leganes 43% | Draw 35% | Valencia 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 47% | xG Leganes 1.31 / Valencia 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: Leganes attack 0.686 / def 1.182 | Valencia attack 0.726 / def 1.307 | league avg home 1.463 / away 1.043 • Poisson stance: Leganes (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
Leganes xG
Expected Goals
0.90
Valencia xG
47%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Leganes vs Valencia kick off?
Leganes vs Valencia kicked off at 20:00 on Friday 4 October 2024 at Estadio Municipal de Butarque.
What was the final score in Leganes vs Valencia?
Leganes 0 - 0 Valencia.
Where is Leganes vs Valencia being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Municipal de Butarque.
What competition is Leganes vs Valencia part of?
Leganes vs Valencia is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Leganes vs Valencia?
Our statistical model gives Leganes a 43% chance of winning, Valencia a 22% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Leganes the favourite.
Will both teams score in Leganes vs Valencia?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Leganes and Valencia will score (BTTS).
Will Leganes vs Valencia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Leganes and Valencia?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Leganes and Valencia in?
Leganes (all comps): 1W-4D-3L in 8 | 0.88 PPG | GF 0.62 / GA 1.12 | L5 L-L-L-D-D. Valencia (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-L-W-D-L.
What do the betting odds say about Leganes vs Valencia?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Leganes's attack at 0.69x the league average against Valencia's defence at 1.31x — combine the two and it projects 1.31 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Valencia's attack versus Leganes's defence, projects 0.90 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 8/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (12.7%), 0-0 (12.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Leganes Win
43%
2.33
35%
2.87
22%
4.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
11.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
Leganes xG
Total xG
2.21
0.90
Valencia xG
2.33
43%
Home win
2.87
35%
Draw
4.51
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.15
53%
BTTS No
1.87
Clean Sheet
41%
2.45
27%
3.71
Win to Nil
18%
5.70
6%
16.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.0 | 9.8 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.4 | 12.9 | 5.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.5 | 8.5 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 4.1 | 3.7 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Leganes vs Valencia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Leganes and Valencia expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Leganes and 0.90 for Valencia, a combined total of 2.21.
How confident is the prediction model for Leganes vs Valencia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Leganes come into this having played 8 games, going 1W 4D 3L for 0.88 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-D-D. The sample for Leganes is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Valencia sit at 0.62 PPG from 8 outings (1W 2D 5L), a run that reads D-L-W-D-L across their last five. The sample for Valencia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Leganes on 0.88 PPG, Valencia on 0.62. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Leganes's home form reads 1W 0D 2L across 3 games on their own ground, a 1.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Valencia have taken 0.00 points per game from 3 outings (0W 0D 3L). That's a step down from their 0.62 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Valencia's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Leganes come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Leganes are averaging 0.62 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; Valencia are on 0.62 scored and 1.62 conceded.
Last 8 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Leganes
Blended
Valencia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Leganes and Valencia in coming into this match?
Leganes have gone 1W 4D 3L in their last 8 games (0.88 PPG), while Valencia have gone 1W 2D 5L in their last 8 (0.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Leganes at home or Valencia away?
Leganes's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Leganes at home: 1.00 PPG; Valencia away: 0.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 9 February 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Leganes
1
Draws
1
Valencia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Leganes and Valencia?
From 2 meetings on record, Leganes have won 0, Valencia have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Leganes and Valencia last play each other?
They last met on 9 February 2025, when Valencia 2-0 Leganes.
Who has won more matches between Leganes and Valencia?
Valencia have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Leganes see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches.
Valencia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Leganes 33% BTTS, Valencia 0%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Leganes) and 67% (Valencia).
On the defensive side: Leganes have failed to score in 67% of games; Valencia in 100%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Leganes home games / Valencia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Leganes play Valencia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Leganes's recent matches and 0% of Valencia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Leganes vs Valencia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Leganes's recent games and 67% of Valencia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Leganes and Valencia tend to score early?
Leganes have had a goal before half-time in 33% of their recent matches, Valencia in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Leganes's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estadio Municipal de Butarque, Regular Season - 9, as Leganes and Valencia drew 0-0 in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Leganes 1.31 xG and Valencia 0.90 xG, a combined 2.21. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Leganes fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Valencia landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Leganes attack 0.69 / defence 1.18 against Valencia attack 0.73 / defence 1.31, drawn from 8/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Leganes 43% | Draw 35% | Valencia 22%, with Leganes to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 31% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Leganes 12%, Valencia 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Leganes's trading profile (8 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 50% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Valencia's trading profile (8 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 50% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Leganes 0.88 PPG, Valencia 0.62 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Leganes (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line. Valencia (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.