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Dominant Real Sociedad run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Leganes.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Real Sociedad beat Leganes 0-3 at Estadio Municipal de Butarque, Regular Season - 16, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Leganes 0.64 xG and Real Sociedad 0.92 xG, a combined 1.56. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Real Sociedad outscored their 0.92 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Leganes attack 0.70 / defence 1.01 against Real Sociedad attack 0.79 / defence 0.62, drawn from 15/53 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Leganes 24% | Draw 35% | Real Sociedad 40%, with Real Sociedad to win its most likely call at 40%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 21%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 46% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 28% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 27% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Leganes 33%, Real Sociedad 20%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 33%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Leganes's trading profile (15 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Real Sociedad's trading profile (15 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 20% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 53% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Leganes 1.00 PPG, Real Sociedad 1.40 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Real Sociedad win broke the near-deadlock. Leganes (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.86 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Real Sociedad (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.57 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights