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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Real Betis edge out Leganes 2-3.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Real Betis beat Leganes 2-3 at Estadio Municipal de Butarque, Regular Season - 28, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Leganes 1.26 xG and Real Betis 1.45 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Real Betis outscored their 1.45 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Leganes attack 0.86 / defence 1.25 against Real Betis attack 1.04 / defence 1.03, drawn from 27/65 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Leganes 33% | Draw 26% | Real Betis 41%, with Real Betis to win its most likely call at 41%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Leganes 37%, Real Betis 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Leganes's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did.

Real Betis's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Real Betis arrived the stronger side — 1.52 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Leganes (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.46 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Real Betis (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights