Leganes 2-1 Las Palmas – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Leganes at 39% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Leganes vs Las Palmas encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a La Liga clash, Regular Season - 2 as Leganes welcome Las Palmas to Estadio Municipal de Butarque. Kick-off is set for Sunday 25 August 2024 at 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all La Liga games this season, Leganes have gone 0W 1D 0L from 1 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Leganes have played only a handful of La Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Las Palmas stand at 0W 4D 6L from 10 La Liga matches — 0.40 PPG. Last five: L D D D D. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Las Palmas have played only a handful of La Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Las Palmas have gone 1W 3D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
On current form, Leganes have the edge — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.00 vs 0.40) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Leganes 1.25 xG and Las Palmas 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Leganes attack 0.861 / defence 1.150 | Las Palmas attack 0.882 / defence 1.044. League average goals — home 1.395 / away 1.105. Data: 1 Leganes games / 39 Las Palmas games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Leganes 39% | Draw 29% | Las Palmas 32%. Fair-value odds: Leganes 2.56 | Draw 3.45 | Las Palmas 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.37. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.37 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Leganes as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Leganes offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.37 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Leganes vs Las Palmas | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Estadio Municipal de Butarque • Kick-off: Sunday 25 Aug 2024, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Leganes 39% | Draw 29% | Las Palmas 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 49% | xG Leganes 1.25 / Las Palmas 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: Leganes attack 0.861 / def 1.150 | Las Palmas attack 0.882 / def 1.044 | league avg home 1.395 / away 1.105 • Poisson stance: Leganes (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
Leganes xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Las Palmas xG
49%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Leganes vs Las Palmas kick off?
Leganes vs Las Palmas kicked off at 18:00 on Sunday 25 August 2024 at Estadio Municipal de Butarque.
What was the final score in Leganes vs Las Palmas?
Leganes 2 - 1 Las Palmas.
Where is Leganes vs Las Palmas being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Municipal de Butarque.
What competition is Leganes vs Las Palmas part of?
Leganes vs Las Palmas is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Leganes vs Las Palmas?
Our statistical model gives Leganes a 39% chance of winning, Las Palmas a 32% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Leganes the favourite.
Will both teams score in Leganes vs Las Palmas?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Leganes and Las Palmas will score (BTTS).
Will Leganes vs Las Palmas have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Leganes and Las Palmas?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Leganes and Las Palmas in?
Leganes (all comps): 0W-1D-0L in 1 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 D. Las Palmas (all comps): 0W-4D-6L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Leganes's attacking strength (0.86x league average) is weighed against Las Palmas's defensive record (1.04x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.25. The same calculation in reverse, Las Palmas's attack versus Leganes's defence, projects 1.12 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (1/39 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.0%), 1-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Leganes Win
39%
2.58
29%
3.44
32%
3.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.7%
Home win
0 – 1
10.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
Leganes xG
Total xG
2.37
1.12
Las Palmas xG
2.58
39%
Home win
3.44
29%
Draw
3.10
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.05
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
33%
3.06
29%
3.50
Win to Nil
13%
7.92
9%
10.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 10.4 | 5.8 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.7 | 13.1 | 7.3 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 8.2 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.4 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Leganes vs Las Palmas?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Leganes and Las Palmas expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Leganes and 1.12 for Las Palmas, a combined total of 2.37.
How confident is the prediction model for Leganes vs Las Palmas?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Leganes's recent record stands at 0W 1D 0L from 1 games, a 1.00 PPG return, with D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Leganes, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Las Palmas, meanwhile, have gone 0W 1D 0L across 1 games — 1.00 PPG, with D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Las Palmas, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Leganes on 1.00 PPG, Las Palmas on 1.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
The Goals Picture
Leganes are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Las Palmas are on 2.00 scored and 2.00 conceded. Las Palmas's attacking output running into Leganes's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Leganes have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games; Las Palmas in 100%.
Last 1 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Leganes
Early Season
Las Palmas
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Leganes and Las Palmas in coming into this match?
Leganes have gone 0W 1D 0L in their last 1 games (1.00 PPG), while Las Palmas have gone 0W 1D 0L in their last 1 (1.00 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Leganes and Las Palmas runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 May 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Leganes
0
Draws
0
Las Palmas
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Leganes and Las Palmas?
From 2 meetings on record, Leganes have won 2, Las Palmas have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Leganes and Las Palmas last play each other?
They last met on 18 May 2025, when Las Palmas 0-1 Leganes.
Who has won more matches between Leganes and Las Palmas?
Leganes have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Leganes home games / Las Palmas away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Leganes play Las Palmas?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Leganes's games and 100% of Las Palmas's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Leganes vs Las Palmas usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Leganes's recent games and 100% of Las Palmas's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Leganes and Las Palmas tend to score early?
Leganes have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Las Palmas in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Leganes edge out Las Palmas 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Leganes beat Las Palmas 2-1 at Estadio Municipal de Butarque, Regular Season - 2, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Leganes 1.25 xG and Las Palmas 1.12 xG, a combined 2.37. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Leganes attack 0.86 / defence 1.15 against Las Palmas attack 0.88 / defence 1.04, drawn from 1/39 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Leganes 39% | Draw 29% | Las Palmas 32%, with Leganes to win its most likely call at 39%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Leganes 0%, Las Palmas 100%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 100%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Leganes 1.00 PPG, Las Palmas 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Leganes win broke the near-deadlock. Leganes scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm. Las Palmas managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.