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Shock result as Leganes defy the odds to beat Getafe 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Leganes beat Getafe 1-0 at Estadio Municipal de Butarque, Regular Season - 26, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Leganes 0.91 xG and Getafe 1.63 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Getafe landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Leganes attack 0.86 / defence 1.36 against Getafe attack 1.05 / defence 0.74, drawn from 25/63 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Leganes 21% | Draw 25% | Getafe 54%, with Getafe to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a Leganes win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 28% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Leganes 36%, Getafe 20%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Leganes's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not.

Getafe's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Leganes 0.96 PPG, Getafe 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Leganes win broke the near-deadlock. Leganes (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.58 average — tighter than their form line. Getafe (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.92 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights