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Shock result as Leganes defy the odds to beat Espanyol 3-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Leganes beat Espanyol 3-2 at Estadio Municipal de Butarque, Regular Season - 35, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Leganes 1.01 xG and Espanyol 1.33 xG, a combined 2.34. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Leganes beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Leganes attack 0.79 / defence 1.18 against Espanyol attack 0.95 / defence 0.93, drawn from 34/34 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Leganes 28% | Draw 28% | Espanyol 44%, with Espanyol to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Leganes win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Leganes 38%, Espanyol 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Leganes's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.

Espanyol's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Leganes 0.91 PPG, Espanyol 1.15 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Leganes win broke the near-deadlock. Leganes (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm. Espanyol (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.88 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.53 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights