Las Palmas 2-2 Sevilla – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Las Palmas at 38%, yet in-form Sevilla provide a compelling counter-argument — this Las Palmas vs Sevilla fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estadio de Gran Canaria plays host to Las Palmas versus Sevilla in La Liga, Regular Season - 1. Kick-off: Friday 16 August 2024 at 20:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Las Palmas have collected 0.30 PPG across 10 La Liga outings this season: 0W 3D 7L. Last five: L L D D D. They are averaging 0.40 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Las Palmas haven't played a La Liga game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Las Palmas at Estadio de Gran Canaria this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 home games — 0.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 0.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.30 — Las Palmas are significantly better at Estadio de Gran Canaria than their overall form suggests.
Sevilla's overall La Liga record this term: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: W L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Sevilla haven't played a La Liga game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
On the road, Sevilla have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Sevilla arrive in superior form — a 1.00 PPG advantage (1.30 vs 0.30) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Las Palmas 0W, Sevilla 2W, 0D.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 2 previous contests averaged 1.5 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 14 Apr 2024, ended 0–2 with Sevilla winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Las Palmas — key trading statistics (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (home games); they fail to score in 45% of games.
Sevilla — key trading statistics (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Las Palmas 40% versus Sevilla 58%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Las Palmas 29% | Sevilla 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Las Palmas 1.29 xG and Sevilla 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Las Palmas attack 0.882 / defence 1.046 | Sevilla attack 0.985 / defence 0.980. League average goals — home 1.487 / away 1.146. Data: 38 Las Palmas games / 38 Sevilla games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Las Palmas 38% | Draw 28% | Sevilla 33%. Fair-value odds: Las Palmas 2.63 | Draw 3.57 | Sevilla 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.47. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.47 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Las Palmas are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Sevilla (1.30 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Las Palmas if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.47 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Las Palmas 40% | Sevilla 50%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (38 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Las Palmas vs Sevilla | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Estadio de Gran Canaria • Kick-off: Friday 16 Aug 2024, 20:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Las Palmas 38% | Draw 28% | Sevilla 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 51% | xG Las Palmas 1.29 / Sevilla 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Las Palmas attack 0.882 / def 1.046 | Sevilla attack 0.985 / def 0.980 | league avg home 1.487 / away 1.146 • Poisson stance: Las Palmas (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
Las Palmas xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Sevilla xG
51%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Las Palmas vs Sevilla kick off?
Las Palmas vs Sevilla kicked off at 20:30 on Friday 16 August 2024 at Estadio de Gran Canaria.
What was the final score in Las Palmas vs Sevilla?
Las Palmas 2 - 2 Sevilla.
Where is Las Palmas vs Sevilla being played?
The match is being played at Estadio de Gran Canaria.
What competition is Las Palmas vs Sevilla part of?
Las Palmas vs Sevilla is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Las Palmas vs Sevilla?
Our statistical model gives Las Palmas a 38% chance of winning, Sevilla a 33% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Las Palmas the favourite.
Will both teams score in Las Palmas vs Sevilla?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Las Palmas and Sevilla will score (BTTS).
Will Las Palmas vs Sevilla have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Las Palmas and Sevilla?
Record (2 meetings): Las Palmas 0W | Draws 0 | Sevilla 2W.
What form are Las Palmas and Sevilla in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Las Palmas (all comps): 0W-3D-7L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Las Palmas's attacking strength (0.88x league average) is weighed against Sevilla's defensive record (0.98x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.29. Flip it around — Sevilla's attack (0.98x) against Las Palmas's defence (1.05x) — and the away total comes out at 1.18.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.2%), 1-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Las Palmas Win
38%
2.61
28%
3.53
33%
3.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
0 – 1
10.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
Las Palmas xG
Total xG
2.47
1.18
Sevilla xG
2.61
38%
Home win
3.53
28%
Draw
3.00
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
31%
3.26
28%
3.62
Win to Nil
12%
8.50
9%
10.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 10.0 | 5.9 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 12.9 | 7.6 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 8.3 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.6 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Las Palmas vs Sevilla?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Las Palmas and Sevilla expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Las Palmas and 1.18 for Sevilla, a combined total of 2.47.
How confident is the prediction model for Las Palmas vs Sevilla?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 38 outings, Las Palmas have picked up 1.05 PPG on a 10W 10D 18L record — L-L-D-D-D across the most recent five. Las Palmas haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Sevilla's form line: 10W 11D 17L from 38 games, 1.08 PPG, last five W-L-L-L-L. Sevilla haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.05 PPG for Las Palmas against 1.08 for Sevilla. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Las Palmas have posted 1.26 PPG from 19 outings (6W 6D 7L).
On the road, Sevilla have gone 4W 6D 9L from 19 away games — 0.95 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Las Palmas are averaging 0.87 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; Sevilla are on 1.26 scored and 1.42 conceded.
Last 38 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Las Palmas
Pre-Season
Sevilla
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Las Palmas and Sevilla in coming into this match?
Las Palmas have gone 10W 10D 18L in their last 38 games (1.05 PPG), while Sevilla have gone 10W 11D 17L in their last 38 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Las Palmas at home or Sevilla away?
Las Palmas's home record (1.26 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Las Palmas at home: 1.26 PPG; Sevilla away: 0.95 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since September 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 13 May 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Las Palmas have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Sevilla — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Las Palmas
1
Draws
3
Sevilla
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Las Palmas and Sevilla?
From 4 meetings on record, Las Palmas have won 0, Sevilla have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Las Palmas and Sevilla last play each other?
They last met on 13 May 2025, when Sevilla 1-0 Las Palmas.
Who has won more matches between Las Palmas and Sevilla?
Sevilla have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Las Palmas see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Sevilla are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Las Palmas 47%, Sevilla 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 32% (Las Palmas) and 42% (Sevilla).
On the defensive side: Las Palmas have failed to score in 32% of games; Sevilla in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Las Palmas home games / Sevilla away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Las Palmas play Sevilla?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Las Palmas's recent matches and 47% of Sevilla's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Las Palmas vs Sevilla usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 32% of Las Palmas's recent games and 42% of Sevilla's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Las Palmas and Sevilla tend to score early?
Las Palmas have had a goal before half-time in 53% of their recent matches, Sevilla in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Las Palmas and Sevilla share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Las Palmas and Sevilla finished level at 2-2 at Estadio de Gran Canaria, Regular Season - 1, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Las Palmas 1.29 xG and Sevilla 1.18 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Sevilla outscored their 1.18 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Las Palmas attack 0.88 / defence 1.05 against Sevilla attack 0.98 / defence 0.98, drawn from 38/38 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Las Palmas 38% | Draw 28% | Sevilla 33%, with Las Palmas to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Las Palmas 29%, Sevilla 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Las Palmas's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did.
Sevilla's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Las Palmas 1.05 PPG, Sevilla 1.08 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Las Palmas (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.05 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.05 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sevilla (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.11 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.