Las Palmas 1-0 Girona – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Las Palmas at 36%, yet in-form Girona provide a compelling counter-argument — this Las Palmas vs Girona fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A La Liga encounter, Regular Season - 11 sees Girona travel to Estadio de Gran Canaria to take on Las Palmas. The game is scheduled for Saturday 26 October 2024, 17:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Las Palmas — All Games: 1W 3D 6L from 10 La Liga outings this season, averaging 0.60 points per game. Last five: L D L L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Las Palmas, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Las Palmas at Estadio de Gran Canaria this season: 0W 5D 5L from 10 home games — 0.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all La Liga games this season, Girona have recorded 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L D D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Girona, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Girona have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Girona — 0.60 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.20 vs 0.60). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Las Palmas, 2 for Girona and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The last 2 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.5 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 27 Apr 2024, ended 0–2 with Girona winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Las Palmas in-play tendencies (48 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Girona in-play tendencies (48 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Las Palmas 48% versus Girona 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Las Palmas 35% | Girona 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Las Palmas 1.25 xG and Girona 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Las Palmas attack 0.872 / defence 1.146 | Girona attack 0.945 / defence 0.991. League average goals — home 1.451 / away 1.097. Data: 48 Las Palmas games / 48 Girona games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Las Palmas 36% | Draw 32% | Girona 32%. Fair-value odds: Las Palmas 2.78 | Draw 3.12 | Girona 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Las Palmas are the pick at 36% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Girona (1.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Las Palmas offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.44 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates corroborate: Las Palmas 60% | Girona 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Las Palmas vs Girona | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Estadio de Gran Canaria • Kick-off: Saturday 26 Oct 2024, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Las Palmas 36% | Draw 32% | Girona 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 52% | xG Las Palmas 1.25 / Girona 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Las Palmas attack 0.872 / def 1.146 | Girona attack 0.945 / def 0.991 | league avg home 1.451 / away 1.097 • Poisson stance: Las Palmas (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
Las Palmas xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Girona xG
52%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Las Palmas vs Girona kick off?
Las Palmas vs Girona kicked off at 17:30 on Saturday 26 October 2024 at Estadio de Gran Canaria.
What was the final score in Las Palmas vs Girona?
Las Palmas 1 - 0 Girona.
Where is Las Palmas vs Girona being played?
The match is being played at Estadio de Gran Canaria.
What competition is Las Palmas vs Girona part of?
Las Palmas vs Girona is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Las Palmas vs Girona?
Our statistical model gives Las Palmas a 36% chance of winning, Girona a 32% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Las Palmas the favourite.
Will both teams score in Las Palmas vs Girona?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Las Palmas and Girona will score (BTTS).
Will Las Palmas vs Girona have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Las Palmas and Girona?
Record (2 meetings): Las Palmas 0W | Draws 0 | Girona 2W.
What form are Las Palmas and Girona in?
Las Palmas (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-D-L-L-W. Girona (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-D-W-L.
What do the betting odds say about Las Palmas vs Girona?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Las Palmas's attack rating (0.87) and Girona's defence rating (0.99), the model arrives at 1.25 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Girona's attack versus Las Palmas's defence, projects 1.19 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.4%), 1-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Las Palmas Win
36%
2.81
32%
3.13
32%
3.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
0 – 1
10.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
Las Palmas xG
Total xG
2.44
1.19
Girona xG
2.81
36%
Home win
3.13
32%
Draw
3.08
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
30%
3.28
29%
3.50
Win to Nil
11%
9.20
9%
10.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 10.3 | 6.1 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 13.0 | 7.7 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 8.1 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.4 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Las Palmas vs Girona?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Las Palmas and Girona expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Las Palmas and 1.19 for Girona, a combined total of 2.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Las Palmas vs Girona?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Las Palmas's recent record stands at 11W 13D 24L from 48 games, a 0.96 PPG return, with L-D-L-L-W in the last five. The sample for Las Palmas is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Girona, meanwhile, have gone 28W 9D 11L across 48 games — 1.94 PPG, with L-D-D-W-L in their last five. The sample for Girona is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Girona by 0.98 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Las Palmas heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Las Palmas have managed 6W 9D 9L from 24 games — 1.12 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Girona's away record stands at 11W 6D 7L across 24 trips, a 1.62 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Girona come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Las Palmas are averaging 0.94 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Girona are on 2.00 scored and 1.23 conceded.
Last 48 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Las Palmas
Blended
Girona
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Las Palmas and Girona in coming into this match?
Las Palmas have gone 11W 13D 24L in their last 48 games (0.96 PPG), while Girona have gone 28W 9D 11L in their last 48 (1.94 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Las Palmas at home or Girona away?
Girona's away record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Las Palmas at home: 1.12 PPG; Girona away: 1.62 PPG.
Have Las Palmas or Girona been keeping clean sheets recently?
Las Palmas have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, Girona in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Las Palmas and Girona runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 February 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Las Palmas's record when hosting Girona specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Las Palmas
0
Draws
3
Girona
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Las Palmas and Girona?
From 4 meetings on record, Las Palmas have won 1, Girona have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Las Palmas and Girona last play each other?
They last met on 3 February 2025, when Girona 2-1 Las Palmas.
Who has won more matches between Las Palmas and Girona?
Girona have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Las Palmas are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Girona are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Las Palmas 54%, Girona 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Las Palmas) and 50% (Girona).
On the defensive side: Las Palmas have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Las Palmas home games / Girona away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Las Palmas play Girona?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Las Palmas's games and 58% of Girona's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Las Palmas vs Girona usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Las Palmas's recent games and 50% of Girona's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Las Palmas and Girona tend to score early?
Las Palmas have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Girona in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Las Palmas edge out Girona 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Las Palmas beat Girona 1-0 at Estadio de Gran Canaria, Regular Season - 11, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Las Palmas 1.25 xG and Girona 1.19 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Girona landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Las Palmas attack 0.87 / defence 1.15 against Girona attack 0.94 / defence 0.99, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Las Palmas 36% | Draw 32% | Girona 32%, with Las Palmas to win its most likely call at 36%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Las Palmas 35%, Girona 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Las Palmas's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not.
Girona's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Girona arrived the stronger side — 1.94 PPG against 0.96. Form was overturned, with Las Palmas winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Las Palmas (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line. Girona (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.