Granada CF 2-3 Villarreal – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Villarreal at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Granada CF vs Villarreal fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Granada CF and Villarreal meet at Estadio Nuevo Los Cármenes in La Liga, Regular Season - 11. This fixture gets under way on Monday 30 October 2023 at 20:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Granada CF have collected 0.60 PPG across 10 La Liga outings this season: 1W 3D 6L. Last five: L D D D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 2.50 conceded. However, 2.50 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Granada CF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Granada CF's form when playing at home: 1W 2D 2L across 5 games at Estadio Nuevo Los Cármenes this term (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Villarreal (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 La Liga outings this term — 0.90 points per game. Last five: D L D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Villarreal, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Villarreal have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.50 exceeds their overall 0.90 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.60 vs 0.90 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Granada CF register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant games, Villarreal in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Granada CF lead 0W to 1W over the last 2 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Feb 2022, ended 1–4 with Villarreal winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Granada CF half-time and goal-timing data (10 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 60%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
Villarreal half-time and goal-timing data (10 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Granada CF 70% and Villarreal 80% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Granada CF 60% | Villarreal 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Granada CF 1.29 xG and Villarreal 1.50 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Granada CF attack 0.957 / defence 1.393 | Villarreal attack 0.891 / defence 0.896. League average goals — home 1.506 / away 1.213. Data: 10 Granada CF games / 48 Villarreal games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Granada CF 32% | Draw 27% | Villarreal 42%. Fair-value odds: Granada CF 3.12 | Draw 3.70 | Villarreal 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.80. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.80 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Villarreal at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Villarreal if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.80 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate: Granada CF 80% | Villarreal 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Granada CF vs Villarreal | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Estadio Nuevo Los Cármenes • Kick-off: Monday 30 Oct 2023, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Granada CF 32% | Draw 27% | Villarreal 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 57% | xG Granada CF 1.29 / Villarreal 1.50 • Poisson strength factors: Granada CF attack 0.957 / def 1.393 | Villarreal attack 0.891 / def 0.896 | league avg home 1.506 / away 1.213 • Poisson stance: Villarreal (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
Granada CF xG
Expected Goals
1.50
Villarreal xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Granada CF vs Villarreal kick off?
Granada CF vs Villarreal kicked off at 20:00 on Monday 30 October 2023 at Estadio Nuevo Los Cármenes.
What was the final score in Granada CF vs Villarreal?
Granada CF 2 - 3 Villarreal.
Where is Granada CF vs Villarreal being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Nuevo Los Cármenes.
What competition is Granada CF vs Villarreal part of?
Granada CF vs Villarreal is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Granada CF vs Villarreal?
Our statistical model gives Granada CF a 32% chance of winning, Villarreal a 42% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Villarreal the favourite.
Will both teams score in Granada CF vs Villarreal?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Granada CF and Villarreal will score (BTTS).
Will Granada CF vs Villarreal have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Granada CF and Villarreal?
Record (2 meetings): Granada CF 0W | Draws 1 | Villarreal 1W.
What form are Granada CF and Villarreal in?
Granada CF (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.50 | L5 L-D-D-D-L. Villarreal (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Granada CF's attack at 0.96x the league average against Villarreal's defence at 0.90x — combine the two and it projects 1.29 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Villarreal's attack (0.89x) against Granada CF's defence (1.39x) — and the away total comes out at 1.50.
These ratings are built from 10/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.9%), 2-1 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Villarreal Win
32%
3.13
27%
3.77
42%
2.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.2%
Away win
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
Granada CF xG
Total xG
2.80
1.50
Villarreal xG
3.13
32%
Home win
3.77
27%
Draw
2.41
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.33
Clean Sheet
22%
4.50
27%
3.64
Win to Nil
7%
14.12
11%
8.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 9.2 | 6.9 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 11.9 | 8.9 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 7.7 | 5.8 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.3 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Granada CF vs Villarreal?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Granada CF and Villarreal expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Granada CF and 1.50 for Villarreal, a combined total of 2.80.
How confident is the prediction model for Granada CF vs Villarreal?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Granada CF's recent record stands at 1W 3D 6L from 10 games, a 0.60 PPG return, with L-D-D-D-L in the last five. The sample for Granada CF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Villarreal, meanwhile, have gone 2W 3D 5L across 10 games — 0.90 PPG, with D-L-D-L-D in their last five. The sample for Villarreal is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.60 PPG for Granada CF against 0.90 for Villarreal. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Granada CF have managed 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — 1.25 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 0.60 PPG overall — Granada CF are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Villarreal's away record stands at 1W 2D 1L across 4 trips, a 1.25 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Granada CF are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game recently; Villarreal are on 1.20 scored and 1.60 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Granada CF have seen both teams score in 70% of their recent games; Villarreal in 80%.
Last 10 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Granada CF
Blended
Villarreal
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Granada CF and Villarreal in coming into this match?
Granada CF have gone 1W 3D 6L in their last 10 games (0.60 PPG), while Villarreal have gone 2W 3D 5L in their last 10 (0.90 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Granada CF at home or Villarreal away?
Granada CF's home record (1.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Granada CF at home: 1.25 PPG; Villarreal away: 1.25 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 March 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Villarreal have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Villarreal won 5-1 on 3 Mar 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Granada CF have gone 0W 0D 2L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Villarreal — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Granada CF
1
Draws
3
Villarreal
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Granada CF and Villarreal?
From 4 meetings on record, Granada CF have won 0, Villarreal have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Granada CF and Villarreal last play each other?
They last met on 3 March 2024, when Villarreal 5-1 Granada CF.
Who has won more matches between Granada CF and Villarreal?
Villarreal have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Granada CF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Villarreal see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 100% for Granada CF, 50% for Villarreal — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 75% (Granada CF) and 25% (Villarreal).
On the defensive side: Villarreal in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Granada CF home games / Villarreal away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Granada CF play Villarreal?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Granada CF's games and 50% of Villarreal's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Granada CF vs Villarreal usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 75% of Granada CF's recent games and 25% of Villarreal's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Granada CF and Villarreal tend to score early?
Granada CF have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Villarreal in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Villarreal edge out Granada CF 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Villarreal beat Granada CF 2-3 at Estadio Nuevo Los Cármenes, Regular Season - 11, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Granada CF 1.29 xG and Villarreal 1.50 xG, a combined 2.80. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Villarreal outscored their 1.50 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Granada CF attack 0.96 / defence 1.39 against Villarreal attack 0.89 / defence 0.90, drawn from 10/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Granada CF 32% | Draw 27% | Villarreal 42%, with Villarreal to win its most likely call at 42%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Granada CF 60%, Villarreal 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 75%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Granada CF's trading profile (10 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.
Villarreal's trading profile (10 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 80% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Granada CF 0.60 PPG, Villarreal 0.90 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Villarreal win broke the near-deadlock. Villarreal (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.75 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.