Granada CF 1-1 Almeria – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Granada CF at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Granada CF vs Almeria fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estadio Nuevo Los Cármenes plays host to Granada CF versus Almeria in La Liga, Regular Season - 25. Kick-off: Sunday 18 February 2024 at 15:15 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Granada CF have collected 0.60 PPG across 10 La Liga outings this season: 1W 3D 6L. Last five: L L L D D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Granada CF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Granada CF's form when playing at home: 1W 5D 4L across 10 games at Estadio Nuevo Los Cármenes this term (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Almeria's overall La Liga record this term: 0W 4D 6L from 10 games (0.40 PPG). Last five: D L L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Almeria, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in La Liga this season, Almeria have posted 0W 0D 10L from 10 away outings — 0.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.60 for Granada CF, 0.40 for Almeria — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Granada CF register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Almeria in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Granada CF 0W, Almeria 0W, 1D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 6.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Oct 2023, ended 3–3 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 6.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Granada CF — key trading statistics (24 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 42% of games.
Almeria — key trading statistics (24 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 43% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Granada CF 54% versus Almeria 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Granada CF 42% | Almeria 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Granada CF 1.49 xG and Almeria 1.45 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Granada CF attack 0.810 / defence 1.291 | Almeria attack 0.997 / defence 1.352. League average goals — home 1.357 / away 1.130. Almeria bring a strong defensive rating of 1.352 — this is suppressing Granada CF's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 24 Granada CF games / 62 Almeria games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Granada CF 36% | Draw 29% | Almeria 35%. Fair-value odds: Granada CF 2.78 | Draw 3.45 | Almeria 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 2.94. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.94 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.49 / 1.45) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Granada CF at 36% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Granada CF if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.94 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Granada CF 70% | Almeria 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Granada CF vs Almeria | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Estadio Nuevo Los Cármenes • Kick-off: Sunday 18 Feb 2024, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Granada CF 36% | Draw 29% | Almeria 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 61% | xG Granada CF 1.49 / Almeria 1.45 • Poisson strength factors: Granada CF attack 0.810 / def 1.291 | Almeria attack 0.997 / def 1.352 | league avg home 1.357 / away 1.130 • Poisson stance: Granada CF (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.49
Granada CF xG
Expected Goals
1.45
Almeria xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Granada CF vs Almeria kick off?
Granada CF vs Almeria kicked off at 15:15 on Sunday 18 February 2024 at Estadio Nuevo Los Cármenes.
What was the final score in Granada CF vs Almeria?
Granada CF 1 - 1 Almeria.
Where is Granada CF vs Almeria being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Nuevo Los Cármenes.
What competition is Granada CF vs Almeria part of?
Granada CF vs Almeria is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Granada CF vs Almeria?
Our statistical model gives Granada CF a 36% chance of winning, Almeria a 35% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Granada CF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Granada CF vs Almeria?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Granada CF and Almeria will score (BTTS).
Will Granada CF vs Almeria have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Granada CF and Almeria?
Record (1 meetings): Granada CF 0W | Draws 1 | Almeria 0W.
What form are Granada CF and Almeria in?
Granada CF (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-L-D-D. Almeria (all comps): 0W-4D-6L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Granada CF's attack rating (0.81) and Almeria's defence rating (1.35), the model arrives at 1.49 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Almeria's attack (1.00x) against Granada CF's defence (1.29x) — and the away total comes out at 1.45.
These ratings are built from 24/62 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.5%), 1-2 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Granada CF Win
36%
2.74
29%
3.50
35%
2.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.5%
Home win
1 – 2
8.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.49
Granada CF xG
Total xG
2.94
1.45
Almeria xG
2.74
36%
Home win
3.50
29%
Draw
2.86
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.63
39%
BTTS No
2.58
Clean Sheet
23%
4.28
23%
4.42
Win to Nil
9%
11.75
8%
12.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 7.7 | 5.6 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 11.4 | 8.3 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 8.5 | 6.2 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 4.2 | 3.1 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Granada CF vs Almeria?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Granada CF and Almeria expected to score?
The model projects 1.49 expected goals for Granada CF and 1.45 for Almeria, a combined total of 2.94.
How confident is the prediction model for Granada CF vs Almeria?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Granada CF come into this having played 24 games, going 2W 7D 15L for 0.54 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-D-D. The sample for Granada CF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Almeria sit at 0.29 PPG from 24 outings (0W 7D 17L), a run that reads D-L-L-L-D across their last five. The sample for Almeria is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.54 PPG for Granada CF against 0.29 for Almeria. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Granada CF's home form reads 2W 5D 5L across 12 games on their own ground, a 0.92 PPG return.
Away from home, Almeria have taken 0.08 points per game from 12 outings (0W 1D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Granada CF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Granada CF are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Almeria are on 0.92 scored and 2.12 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Almeria in 62%.
Last 24 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Granada CF
Blended
Almeria
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Granada CF and Almeria in coming into this match?
Granada CF have gone 2W 7D 15L in their last 24 games (0.54 PPG), while Almeria have gone 0W 7D 17L in their last 24 (0.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Granada CF at home or Almeria away?
Granada CF's home record (0.92 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Granada CF at home: 0.92 PPG; Almeria away: 0.08 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since October 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 February 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Granada CF
2
Draws
0
Almeria
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Granada CF and Almeria?
From 2 meetings on record, Granada CF have won 0, Almeria have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Granada CF and Almeria last play each other?
They last met on 18 February 2024, when Granada CF 1-1 Almeria.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Granada CF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Almeria are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 67% for Granada CF, 75% for Almeria — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Granada CF) and 75% (Almeria). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Granada CF home games / Almeria away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Granada CF play Almeria?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Granada CF's games and 75% of Almeria's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Granada CF vs Almeria usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 42% of Granada CF's matches and 75% of Almeria's.
Do Granada CF and Almeria tend to score early?
Granada CF have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Almeria in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Granada CF and Almeria share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estadio Nuevo Los Cármenes, Regular Season - 25, as Granada CF and Almeria drew 1-1 in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Granada CF 1.49 xG and Almeria 1.45 xG, a combined 2.94. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Granada CF attack 0.81 / defence 1.29 against Almeria attack 1.00 / defence 1.35, drawn from 24/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Granada CF 36% | Draw 29% | Almeria 35%, with Granada CF to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Granada CF 42%, Almeria 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Granada CF's trading profile (24 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Almeria's trading profile (24 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Granada CF 0.54 PPG, Almeria 0.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Almeria (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.