Girona 0-1 Villarreal – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Girona at 67%, yet other data sources diverge — this Girona vs Villarreal fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Girona and Villarreal meet at Estadi Municipal de Montilivi in La Liga, Regular Season - 36. This fixture gets under way on Tuesday 14 May 2024 at 21:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Girona have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 La Liga outings this season: 6W 1D 3L. Last five: L W W W D. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
At home at Estadi Municipal de Montilivi, Girona have gone 9W 1D 0L this season (10 games, 2.80 PPG). They are averaging 3.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.90 — Girona are significantly better at Estadi Municipal de Montilivi than their overall form suggests.
Villarreal (all games): 7W 1D 2L across 10 La Liga outings this term — 2.20 points per game. Last five: D W W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
Villarreal's away record: 4W 2D 4L from 10 road trips in La Liga this season (1.40 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.90 for Girona, 2.20 for Villarreal — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Girona have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Villarreal in 90%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Girona, 2 for Villarreal and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Sep 2023, ended 2–1 with Girona winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Girona goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (73 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games).
Villarreal goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (73 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Girona 64% and Villarreal 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Girona 60% | Villarreal 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Girona 2.94 xG and Villarreal 1.52 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Girona attack 1.674 / defence 1.027 | Villarreal attack 1.353 / defence 1.219. League average goals — home 1.442 / away 1.094. Girona carry an above-average attack strength of 1.674 — their λ of 2.94 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Villarreal bring a strong defensive rating of 1.219 — this is suppressing Girona's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Villarreal have an above-average attack strength of 1.353 — the away xG of 1.52 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 73 Girona games / 73 Villarreal games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Girona 67% | Draw 16% | Villarreal 17%. Fair-value odds: Girona 1.49 | Draw 6.25 | Villarreal 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Girona (67%) — a 50pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 82% | BTTS probability 74% | Total xG 4.46. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 82% — a total xG of 4.46 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 74% reflects that both xG figures (2.94 / 1.52) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Girona at 67% — clear model lean.
Poisson projects 4.46 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 82% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 4.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 74% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Girona 60% | Villarreal 90% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Girona vs Villarreal | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 36 | Venue: Estadi Municipal de Montilivi • Kick-off: Tuesday 14 May 2024, 21:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Girona 67% | Draw 16% | Villarreal 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 82% | BTTS 74% | xG Girona 2.94 / Villarreal 1.52 • Poisson strength factors: Girona attack 1.674 / def 1.027 | Villarreal attack 1.353 / def 1.219 | league avg home 1.442 / away 1.094 • Poisson stance: Girona (67%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.94
Girona xG
Expected Goals
1.52
Villarreal xG
74%
BTTS
94%
Over 1.5
82%
Over 2.5
65%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Girona vs Villarreal kick off?
Girona vs Villarreal kicked off at 21:00 on Tuesday 14 May 2024 at Estadi Municipal de Montilivi.
What was the final score in Girona vs Villarreal?
Girona 0 - 1 Villarreal.
Where is Girona vs Villarreal being played?
The match is being played at Estadi Municipal de Montilivi.
What competition is Girona vs Villarreal part of?
Girona vs Villarreal is a Regular Season - 36 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Girona vs Villarreal?
Our statistical model gives Girona a 67% chance of winning, Villarreal a 17% chance, and a 16% chance of a draw — making Girona the favourite.
Will both teams score in Girona vs Villarreal?
Our model estimates a 74% probability that both Girona and Villarreal will score (BTTS).
Will Girona vs Villarreal have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 82%.
What is the head-to-head record between Girona and Villarreal?
Record (3 meetings): Girona 1W | Draws 0 | Villarreal 2W.
What form are Girona and Villarreal in?
Girona (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-W-W-D. Villarreal (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Girona's attack rating (1.67) and Villarreal's defence rating (1.22), the model arrives at 2.94 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Villarreal's attack (1.35x) against Girona's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 1.52.
These ratings are built from 73/73 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 7.6%. Close behind: 3-1 (7.4%), 1-1 (5.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 21% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Girona Win
67%
1.50
16%
6.29
17%
5.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
7.6%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 1
7.4%
Home win
2 – 2
5.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.94
Girona xG
Total xG
4.46
1.52
Villarreal xG
1.50
67%
Home win
6.29
16%
Draw
5.73
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
94%
Over 1.5
1.06
6%
Under 1.5
16.67
82%
Over 2.5
1.22
18%
Under 2.5
5.56
65%
Over 3.5
1.54
35%
Under 3.5
2.86
46%
Over 4.5
2.17
54%
Under 4.5
1.85
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
74%
BTTS Yes
1.35
26%
BTTS No
3.84
Clean Sheet
22%
4.57
5%
18.95
Win to Nil
15%
6.85
1%
108.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 3.4 | 5.2 | 3.9 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 7.6 | 5.8 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 7.4 | 5.7 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 3.6 | 5.5 | 4.2 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 2.1 | 3.2 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Girona vs Villarreal?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 7.6%.
How many goals are Girona and Villarreal expected to score?
The model projects 2.94 expected goals for Girona and 1.52 for Villarreal, a combined total of 4.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Girona vs Villarreal?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 67%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 73 outings, Girona have picked up 1.70 PPG on a 36W 16D 21L record — L-W-W-W-D across the most recent five.
Villarreal's form line: 32W 16D 25L from 73 games, 1.53 PPG, last five D-W-W-L-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.70 PPG for Girona against 1.53 for Villarreal. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Girona have posted 2.14 PPG from 36 outings (24W 5D 7L). That's noticeably better than their 1.70 PPG overall — Girona are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Villarreal have gone 13W 9D 14L from 36 away games — 1.33 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Girona come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Girona are averaging 1.82 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; Villarreal are on 1.62 scored and 1.37 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Girona have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games; Villarreal in 64%.
Last 73 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Girona
Current Season
Villarreal
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Girona and Villarreal in coming into this match?
Girona have gone 36W 16D 21L in their last 73 games (1.70 PPG), while Villarreal have gone 32W 16D 25L in their last 73 (1.53 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Girona at home or Villarreal away?
Girona's home record (2.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Girona at home: 2.14 PPG; Villarreal away: 1.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to January 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 6 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Villarreal won 5-0 on 24 Aug 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Girona have gone 1W 0D 3L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Villarreal — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Girona
1
Draws
5
Villarreal
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Girona and Villarreal?
From 8 meetings on record, Girona have won 2, Villarreal have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Girona and Villarreal last play each other?
They last met on 6 April 2026, when Girona 1-0 Villarreal.
Who has won more matches between Girona and Villarreal?
Villarreal have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Girona are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Villarreal are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Girona 64%, Villarreal 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Girona and 56% for Villarreal. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Girona home games / Villarreal away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Girona play Villarreal?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Girona's games and 61% of Villarreal's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Girona vs Villarreal usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Girona's matches and 56% of Villarreal's.
Do Girona and Villarreal tend to score early?
Girona have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Villarreal in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Villarreal defy the odds to beat Girona 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Villarreal beat Girona 0-1 at Estadi Municipal de Montilivi, Regular Season - 36, in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Girona 2.94 xG and Villarreal 1.52 xG, a combined 4.46. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Girona fell 2.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Girona attack 1.67 / defence 1.03 against Villarreal attack 1.35 / defence 1.22, drawn from 73/73 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Girona 67% | Draw 16% | Villarreal 17%, with Girona to win its most likely call at 67%. Instead the game produced a Villarreal win, an outcome the model had rated at just 17% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 82%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 94% and missed. Over 3.5 was 65% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 74% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Girona 60%, Villarreal 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Girona's trading profile (73 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Villarreal's trading profile (73 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Girona 1.70 PPG, Villarreal 1.53 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Villarreal win broke the near-deadlock. Girona (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.25 scoring average — below par going forward. Villarreal (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.