Girona vs Real Madrid – Predictions
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🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Girona's attack at 1.37x the league average against Real Madrid's defence at 0.81x — combine the two and it projects 1.63 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Real Madrid's attack (1.32x) against Girona's defence (1.13x) — and the away total comes out at 1.72.
These ratings are built from 53/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.5%), 2-1 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Real Madrid Win
37%
2.72
23%
4.38
40%
2.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.5%
Away win
2 – 1
8.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.63
Girona xG
Total xG
3.34
1.72
Real Madrid xG
2.72
37%
Home win
4.38
23%
Draw
2.48
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.52
34%
BTTS No
2.94
Clean Sheet
18%
5.56
20%
5.10
Win to Nil
7%
15.12
8%
12.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.5 | 6.1 | 5.2 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 5.7 | 9.9 | 8.5 | 4.8 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 8.0 | 6.9 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 4.4 | 3.7 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Girona vs Real Madrid?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.1%.
How many goals are Girona and Real Madrid expected to score?
The model projects 1.63 expected goals for Girona and 1.72 for Real Madrid, a combined total of 3.34.
How confident is the prediction model for Girona vs Real Madrid?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.