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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Real Betis defy the odds to beat Girona 2-3.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Real Betis beat Girona 2-3 at Estadio Municipal de Montilivi, Regular Season - 33, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Girona 1.41 xG and Real Betis 1.02 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Real Betis outscored their 1.02 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Girona attack 0.93 / defence 0.93 against Real Betis attack 0.98 / defence 0.98, drawn from 69/69 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Girona 46% | Draw 27% | Real Betis 27%, with Girona to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual Real Betis win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Girona 52%, Real Betis 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Girona's trading profile (69 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Real Betis's trading profile (69 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Real Betis arrived the stronger side — 1.54 PPG against 1.14. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Girona (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Real Betis (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.29 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights